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Britain in Europe: A Survey of Quantitative Trade Studies

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  • Winters, L. Alan

Abstract

This paper surveys four ex-post quantitative studies of the effect of United Kingdom accession to the European Economic Countries on trade in manufactures. It starts by discussing the principal predictions of economic theory, establishing a framework for measuring integration effects, and sketching the approaches used to study integration effects within the EEC. It then examines the four United Kingdom studies, showing the wide range of approaches and results. It concludes that British imports had risen on account of integration by around 8 billion pound sterling by 1979, almost all of which was trade creation. British exports of manufactures rose by 3 billion pound sterling, a 4.5 billion pound sterling increase to the EEC being offset by a loss of 1.5 billion pound sterling elsewhere. The paper concludes by considering estimates of the welfare effects of accession. The changes in the consumption and production of manufactures were probably beneficial overall, but it must be admitted that, to date, economists have not applied best practice techniques to this question.

Suggested Citation

  • Winters, L. Alan, 1986. "Britain in Europe: A Survey of Quantitative Trade Studies," CEPR Discussion Papers 110, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:110
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    Cited by:

    1. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    2. Jan Sørensen, 1994. "Market integration and imperfect competition in labor and product markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 115-130, March.
    3. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Helena Marques, 2008. "Trade And Factor Flows In A Diverse Eu: What Lessons For The Eastern Enlargement(S)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 364-408, April.
    5. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Are Preferential Trading Arrangements Trade-Liberalizing or Protectionist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 105-124, Fall.
    6. Pain, Nigel & Young, Garry, 2004. "The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 387-408, May.
    7. Fernando Sanz, 2000. "A kalman filter-gravity equation approach to assess the trade impact of economic integration: The case of Spain, 1986–1992," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 84-110, March.
    8. Crafts, Nicholas, 2016. "The Growth Effects of EU Membership for the UK: a Review of the Evidence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 280, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. JACKSON Karen, 2010. "Trade Preferences in Manufactures. The Case of the Turkey–EU Customs Union," EcoMod2003 330700072, EcoMod.

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