IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfr/cefirw/w0229.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intraday Trading Invariance in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Torben G. Andersen

    (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University)

  • Oleg Bondarenko

    (Department of Finance (MC 168), University of Illinois at Chicago)

  • Albert S. Kyle

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland)

  • Anna Obizhaeva

    (New Economic School)

Abstract

The intraday trading patterns in the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract between January 2008 and November 2011 are consistent with the following invariance relationship: The return variation per transaction is log-linearly related to trade size, with a slope coefficient of -2. This association applies both across the pronounced intraday diurnal pattern and across days in the time series. The documented factor of proportionality deviates sharply from prior hypotheses relating volatility to transactions count or trading volume. Intraday trading invariance is motivated a priori by the intuition that market microstructure invariance, introduced by Kyle and Obizhaeva (2016c) to explain bets at low frequencies, also applies to transactions over high intraday frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko & Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Intraday Trading Invariance in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Market," Working Papers w0229, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP229.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian T. Brownlees & Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2011. "Intra-daily Volume Modeling and Prediction for Algorithmic Trading," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 489-518, Summer.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko, 2015. "Assessing Measures of Order Flow Toxicity and Early Warning Signals for Market Turbulence," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-54.
    3. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Market Microstructure Invariance: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model," Working Papers w0228, New Economic School (NES).
    4. Angel, James J, 1997. "Tick Size, Share Prices, and Stock Splits," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 655-681, June.
    5. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Nitish Ranjan Sinha & Tugkan Tuzun, 2017. "News Articles and Equity Trading," Working Papers w0233, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    6. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    7. Harris, Lawrence E, 1994. "Minimum Price Variations, Discrete Bid-Ask Spreads, and Quotation Sizes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 149-178.
    8. Anthony Murphy & Marwan Izzeldin, 2010. "Recovering the moments of information flow and the normality of asset returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 761-769.
    9. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2014. "High-Frequency Financial Econometrics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10261.
    10. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Jubinski, Dan, 1999. "Equity Trading Volume and Volatility: Latent Information Arrivals and Common Long-Run Dependencies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-21, January.
    12. Goldstein, Michael A. & A. Kavajecz, Kenneth, 2000. "Eighths, sixteenths, and market depth: changes in tick size and liquidity provision on the NYSE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 125-149, April.
    13. Liesenfeld, Roman, 2001. "A generalized bivariate mixture model for stock price volatility and trading volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 141-178, August.
    14. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    15. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Nitish Ranjan Sinha & Tugkan Tuzun, 2017. "News Articles and Equity Trading," Working Papers w0233, New Economic School (NES).
    16. Alexander, Gordon J. & Peterson, Mark A., 2007. "An analysis of trade-size clustering and its relation to stealth trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 435-471, May.
    17. Christian T. Brownlees & Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2011. "Multiplicative Error Models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2011_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Apr 2011.
    18. Westerfield, Randolph, 1977. "The Distribution of Common Stock Price Changes: An Application of Transactions Time and Subordinated Stochastic Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 743-765, December.
    19. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    20. Moulton, Pamela C., 2005. "You can't always get what you want: Trade-size clustering and quantity choice in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 89-119, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark D. Flood & John C. Liechty & Thomas Piontek, 2015. "Systemwide Commonalities in Market Liquidity," Working Papers 15-11, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    2. Frédéric Bucci & Fabrizio Lillo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Are trading invariants really invariant? Trading costs matter," Post-Print hal-02323318, HAL.
    3. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2017. "Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2017-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Barardehi, Yashar H. & Bernhardt, Dan & Ruchti, Thomas G., 2019. "A test of speculative arbitrage: is the cross-section of volatility invariant?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1204, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Angerer, Martin & Neugebauer, Tibor & Shachat, Jason, 2023. "Arbitrage bots in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 262-278.
    6. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2020. "Industrial Organization, Order Internalization, and Invariance," Working Papers w0274, New Economic School (NES).
    7. Kyoung-hun Bae & Albert S. Kyle & Eun Jung Lee & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Invariance of buy-sell switching points," Working Papers w0232, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    8. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2016. "Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility," Papers 1610.00332, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    9. Kyoung-hun Bae & Albert S. Kyle & Eun Jung Lee & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Invariance of buy-sell switching points," Working Papers w0232, New Economic School (NES).
    10. Fr'ed'eric Bucci & Fabrizio Lillo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2019. "Are trading invariants really invariant? Trading costs matter," Papers 1902.03457, arXiv.org.
    11. Mathias Pohl & Alexander Ristig & Walter Schachermayer & Ludovic Tangpi, 2018. "Theoretical and empirical analysis of trading activity," Papers 1803.04892, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    12. Frédéric Bucci & Fabrizio Lillo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2019. "Are trading invariants really invariant? Trading costs matter," Working Papers hal-02323318, HAL.
    13. Kyoung-hun Bae & Albert S. Kyle & Eun Jung Lee & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2020. "Invariance of Buy-Sell Switching Points," Working Papers w0273, New Economic School (NES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Tugkan Tuzun, 2016. "Microstructure Invariance in U.S. Stock Market Trades," Working Papers w0230, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    2. Jawadi Fredj & Ureche-Rangau Loredana, 2013. "Threshold linkages between volatility and trading volume: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 313-333, May.
    3. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    4. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Tugkan Tuzun, 2016. "Microstructure Invariance in U.S. Stock Market Trades," Working Papers w0230, New Economic School (NES).
    5. Kyle, Albert S. & Obizhaeva, Anna A. & Tuzun, Tugkan, 2020. "Microstructure invariance in U.S. stock market trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Czudaj, Robert L., 2019. "Dynamics between trading volume, volatility and open interest in agricultural futures markets: A Bayesian time-varying coefficient approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 78-145.
    7. Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2008. "Capturing common components in high-frequency financial time series: A multivariate stochastic multiplicative error model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3978-4015, December.
    8. Pyun, Chong Soo & Lee, Sa Young & Nam, Kiseok, 2000. "Volatility and information flows in emerging equity market: A case of the Korean Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 405-420.
    9. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    10. Beum-Jo Park, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets Using a Bivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Surprising Information," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 37-58, September.
    11. Niklas Wagner & Terry Marsh, 2005. "Surprise volume and heteroskedasticity in equity market returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 153-168.
    12. Bourghelle, David & Declerck, Fany, 2004. "Why markets should not necessarily reduce the tick size," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 373-398, February.
    13. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
    15. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Fabien Collado & Ulysse Galiay, 2011. "The dynamics of the volatility – trading volume relationship: New evidence from developed and emerging markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2569-2583.
    16. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2008. "Does trading volume really explain stock returns volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 216-235, July.
    17. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
    18. Taylor, Nicholas, 2008. "Can idiosyncratic volatility help forecast stock market volatility?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 462-479.
    19. Jinliang Li & Chunchi Wu, 2006. "Daily Return Volatility, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Information Flow: Analyzing the Information Content of Volume," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2697-2740, September.
    20. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Rossi, Eduardo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2013. "Long memory and tail dependence in trading volume and volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-112.
    22. Berger, David & Chaboud, Alain & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 192-213, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    market microstructure; invariance; bets; high-frequency trading; liquidity; volatility; volume; business time; time series; intraday patterns;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Babich (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cefirru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.