IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ofr/wpaper/15-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Systemwide Commonalities in Market Liquidity

Author

Listed:
  • Mark D. Flood

    (Office of Financial Research)

  • John C. Liechty

    (Office of Financial Research
    Pennsylvania State University)

  • Thomas Piontek

    (Office of Financial Research)

Abstract

We explore statistical commonalities among granular measures of market liquidity with the goal of illuminating systemwide patterns in aggregate liquidity. We calculate daily invariant price impacts described by Kyle and Obizhaeva [2016] to assemble a granular panel of liquidity measures for equity, corporate bond, and futures markets. We estimate Bayesian models of hidden Markov chains and use Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis to measure the latent structure governing liquidity at the systemwide level. Three latent liquidity regimes -- high, medium, and low price-impact -- are adequate to describe each of the markets. Focusing on the equities subpanel, we test whether a collection of systemwide market summaries can recover the estimated liquidity dynamics. This version of the model allows an economically meaningful attribution of the latent liquidity states and yields meaningful predictions of liquidity disruptions as far as 15 trading days in advance of the 2008 financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark D. Flood & John C. Liechty & Thomas Piontek, 2015. "Systemwide Commonalities in Market Liquidity," Working Papers 15-11, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:15-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-2015-11_Systemwide-Commonalities-in-Market-Liquidity.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko & Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Intraday Trading Invariance in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Market," Working Papers w0229, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    2. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    3. Jean Tirole, 2011. "Illiquidity and All Its Friends," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 287-325, June.
    4. Alexandros Gabrielsen & Massimiliano Marzo & Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Measuring market liquidity: An introductory survey," Papers 1112.6169, arXiv.org.
    5. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    6. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
    8. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Maxwell, William & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2006. "Market transparency, liquidity externalities, and institutional trading costs in corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 251-288, November.
    9. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Understanding liquidity and credit risks in the financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 903-914.
    10. Nicholas Economides, 1997. "The Economics of Networks," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 1(0), December.
    11. McCulloch, Robert E. & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, Peter E., 2000. "A Bayesian analysis of the multinomial probit model with fully identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 173-193, November.
    12. Ms. Sally Chen & Mr. Philip Liu & Andrea M. Maechler & Chris Marsh & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2012. "Exploring the Dynamics of Global Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 2012/246, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
    14. Foucault, Thierry & Pagano, Marco & Roell, Ailsa, 2013. "Market Liquidity: Theory, Evidence, and Policy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199936243, December.
    15. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    16. Michael J. Barclay & Terrence Hendershott & Kenneth Kotz, 2006. "Automation versus Intermediation: Evidence from Treasuries Going Off the Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2395-2414, October.
    17. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2007. "Empirical Market Microstructure: The Institutions, Economics, and Econometrics of Securities Trading," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195301649.
    18. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    19. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
    20. Hans Degryse & Frank de Jong & Vincent van Kervel, 2015. "The Impact of Dark Trading and Visible Fragmentation on Market Quality," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1587-1622.
    21. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    22. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    23. Mahanti, Sriketan & Nashikkar, Amrut & Subrahmanyam, Marti & Chacko, George & Mallik, Gaurav, 2008. "Latent liquidity: A new measure of liquidity, with an application to corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 272-298, May.
    24. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2016. "Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1345-1404, July.
    25. Bence Toth & Yves Lemperiere & Cyril Deremble & Joachim de Lataillade & Julien Kockelkoren & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Anomalous price impact and the critical nature of liquidity in financial markets," Papers 1105.1694, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
    26. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
    27. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    28. Marco Pagano, 1989. "Trading Volume and Asset Liquidity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 255-274.
    29. Engle, Robert F. & Lange, Joe, 2001. "Predicting VNET: A model of the dynamics of market depth," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 113-142, April.
    30. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    31. Richard Bookstaber & Michael D. Foley & Brian F. Tivnan, 2015. "Market Liquidity and Heterogeneity in the Investor Decision Cycle," Working Papers 15-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    32. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2012. "Market liquidity - theory and empirical evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119044, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    34. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan-Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2012. "Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 82-112.
    35. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
    36. Anderson, Nicola & Webber, Lewis & Noss, Joseph & Beale, Daniel & Crowley-Reidy, Liam, 2015. "Financial Stability Paper 34: The resilience of financial market liquidity," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 34, Bank of England.
    37. Thakor, Anjan V. & Boot, Arnoud (ed.), 2008. "Handbook of Financial Intermediation and Banking," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780444515582.
    38. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2009. "Understanding Financial Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251421.
    39. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December.
    40. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Panayides, Marios & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2009. "Hidden liquidity: An analysis of order exposure strategies in electronic stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 361-383, December.
    41. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    42. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    43. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    44. Kawaller, Ira G & Koch, Paul D & Koch, Timothy W, 1987. "The Temporal Price Relationship between S&P 500 Futures and the S and P 500 Index," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1309-1329, December.
    45. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    46. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    47. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    48. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Yerli, Cigdem & Eksi-Altay, Zehra & Selcuk-Kestel, A. Sevtap, 2023. "On the information content of implied liquidity measure: Evidence from the S&P 500 index options," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    2. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    3. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W., 2011. "What happened to the quants in August 2007? Evidence from factors and transactions data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, February.
    4. de Jong, F.C.J.M. & Driessen, J.J.A.G., 2015. "Can large long-term investors capture illiquidity premiums," Other publications TiSEM 9c92b978-0099-44d3-9aab-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    6. Kim, Soon-Ho & Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2014. "Pricing of liquidity risks: Evidence from multiple liquidity measures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 112-133.
    7. Belkhir, Mohamed & Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2020. "Stock extreme illiquidity and the cost of capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    9. Gissler, Stefan, 2017. "Lockstep in liquidity: Common dealers and co-movement in bond liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2019. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 61-79.
    11. Ramos, Henrique Pinto & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2020. "Liquidity, implied volatility and tail risk: A comparison of liquidity measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Amihud, Yakov & Hameed, Allaudeen & Kang, Wenjin & Zhang, Huiping, 2015. "The illiquidity premium: International evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 350-368.
    13. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Sheng Huang & Jonathan Williams & Ru Xie, 2017. "The Future of Money: Liquidity co-movement between financial institutions and real estate firms: evidence from China," Working Papers 17004, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    15. Lasse Pedersen, 2009. "When Everyone Runs for the Exit," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 177-199, December.
    16. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    18. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Supper, Hendrik, 2013. "Forecasting liquidity-adjusted intraday Value-at-Risk with vine copulas," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3334-3350.
    19. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Gian Piero Aielli & Davide Pirino, 2023. "Funding Liquidity and Stocks’ Market Liquidity: Structural Estimation From High-Frequency Data," CEIS Research Paper 568, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 Nov 2023.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:15-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gregory Feldberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ofrgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.