IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/862.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?

Author

Abstract

We analyze the factors driving the widely-noted persistence in asset return volatility using a unique dataset on global euro-dollar exchange rate trading. We propose a new simple empirical specification of volatility, based on the Kyle-model, which links volatility to the information flow, measured as the order flow in the market, and the price sensitivity to that information. Through the use of high-frequency data, we are able to estimate the time-varying market sensitivity to information, and movements in volatility can therefore be directly related to movements in two observable variables, the order flow and the market sensitivity. The empirical results are very strong and show that the model is able to explain almost all of the long-run variation in volatility. Our results also show that the variation over time of the market's sensitivity to information plays at least as important a role in explaining the persistence of volatility as does the rate of information arrival itself. The econometric analysis is conducted using novel estimation techniques which explicitly take into account the persistent nature of the variables and allow us to properly test for long-run relationships in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • David W. Berger & Alain P. Chaboud & Erik Hjalmarsson & Edward Howorka, 2006. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," International Finance Discussion Papers 862, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:862
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2006/862/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2006/862/ifdp862.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    3. Berry, Thomas D & Howe, Keith M, 1994. "Public Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1331-1346, September.
    4. Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006. "Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
    5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 16, pages 645-724, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Mitchell, Mark L & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 923-950, July.
    7. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Ginger Wu, 2006. "Realized Beta: Persistence and Predictability," Advances in Econometrics, in: Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series, pages 1-39, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    11. Clifford M. Hurvich & Eric Moulines & Philippe Soulier, 2005. "Estimating Long Memory in Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1283-1328, July.
    12. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
    13. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    16. Graham Elliott & Ulrich K. Muller, 2006. "Efficient Tests for General Persistent Time Variation in Regression Coefficients," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 907-940.
    17. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    18. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
    19. Shimotsu, Katsumi & Phillips, Peter C B, 2002. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration," Economics Discussion Papers 8838, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    20. Liesenfeld, Roman, 2001. "A generalized bivariate mixture model for stock price volatility and trading volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 141-178, August.
    21. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    22. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    23. Grant McQueen, 2004. "Whence GARCH? A Preference-Based Explanation for Conditional Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 915-949.
    24. Clifford M. Hurvich & Bonnie K. Ray, 2003. "The Local Whittle Estimator of Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 445-470.
    25. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "Asymptotic normality of narrow-band least squares in the stationary fractional cointegration model and volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 343-371, July.
    26. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    27. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Raj S. Krishnasami Iyer & David Liu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "The high-frequency effects of U.S. macroeconomic data releases on prices and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 823, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    29. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
    30. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
    31. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    32. Bollerslev, Tim & Wright, Jonathan H., 2000. "Semiparametric estimation of long-memory volatility dependencies: The role of high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 81-106, September.
    33. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
    34. Federico M. Bandi & Benoit Perron, 2006. "Long Memory and the Relation Between Implied and Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 636-670.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2623-2654 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Bollerslev, Tim & Jubinski, Dan, 1999. "Equity Trading Volume and Volatility: Latent Information Arrivals and Common Long-Run Dependencies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-21, January.
    37. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1994. "Endogenous Trading Volume and Momentum in Stock-Return Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-260, April.
    38. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 193-197, May.
    39. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ran Xiao, 2019. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Market Currencies," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2019, January-A.
    3. Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.
    4. Rossi, Eduardo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2013. "Long memory and tail dependence in trading volume and volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-112.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    7. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    8. Taylor, Nicholas, 2008. "Can idiosyncratic volatility help forecast stock market volatility?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 462-479.
    9. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2021. "Consistent inference for predictive regressions in persistent economic systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 215-244.
    10. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2022. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 361-386.
    11. Beum-Jo Park, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets Using a Bivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Surprising Information," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 37-58, September.
    12. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Tsorakidis, Nikos, 2013. "Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-131.
    14. Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
    15. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Li, Jia & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Shi, Shuping & Yu, Jun, 2022. "Weak Identification of Long Memory with Implications for Inference," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 8-2022, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    18. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
    19. Fei Su, 2018. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2018, January-A.
    20. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Per Frederiksen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2010. "Continuous-time models, realized volatilities, and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 233-261.
    21. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Dobrev, Dobrislav, 2007. "No-arbitrage semi-martingale restrictions for continuous-time volatility models subject to leverage effects, jumps and i.i.d. noise: Theory and testable distributional implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 125-180, May.
    22. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates; Foreign exchange market;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:862. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.