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How globalisation affects inflation
[La mondialisation et ses répercussions sur l’inflation]

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier De Bandt
  • Juan Carluccio

Abstract

Inflation is accelerating sharply in France and the euro area (5.8% year on year and 8.1% respectively in May 2022), and even more so in the United States and the United Kingdom, under the influence of global variables, mainly energy and food prices, and disruptions in global value chains. This article discusses the causes of inflation by re examining the relationship between inflation and globalisation. Globalisation exerted downward, but quantitatively limited, pressure on average euro area inflation up to 2019. Nevertheless, the influence of external shocks on the volatile components of the consumer price index has increased over the last decade. The current strong inflationary pressures appear to constitute a continuation of the globalisation process that began in the 1990s. In the longer term, the question of whether the globalisation process will continue to progress and what impact it will have on inflation remains open. L’inflation accélère fortement en France et en zone euro (respectivement + 5,8 % sur un an et + 8,1 % en mai 2022), et encore plus aux États-Unis et au Royaume-Uni, en raison de variables mondiales (énergie et matières premières), ainsi que des perturbations des chaînes de valeur. Cet article revient sur les causes de l’inflation en réexaminant la relation entre inflation et mondialisation. Cette dernière a eu un effet baissier, mais quantitativement limité, en moyenne sur l’inflation dans la zone euro jusqu’en 2019. Néanmoins, l’influence des chocs externes sur les parties volatiles de l’indice des prix à la consommation s’est accrue dans la dernière décennie. Les fortes pressions inflationnistes actuelles apparaissent comme une continuation du processus d’ouverture entamé à partir des années 1990. À plus long terme se pose la question de savoir si le processus de mondialisation va se poursuivre, et quels en seraient les effets sur l’inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier De Bandt & Juan Carluccio, 2022. "How globalisation affects inflation [La mondialisation et ses répercussions sur l’inflation]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 240.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:bullbf:2022:240:04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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