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Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Toph Allen

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Kris A. Murray

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Stephen S. Morse

    (Columbia University)

  • Carlo Rondinini

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Moreno Di Marco

    (University of Queensland
    The University of Queensland)

  • Nathan Breit

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Kevin J. Olival

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Peter Daszak

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

Abstract

Zoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Toph Allen & Kris A. Murray & Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio & Stephen S. Morse & Carlo Rondinini & Moreno Di Marco & Nathan Breit & Kevin J. Olival & Peter Daszak, 2017. "Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-00923-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00923-8
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    2. Reaser, Jamie & Tabor, Gary M. & Becker, Daniel & Muruthi, Philip & Witt, Arne & Woodley, Stephen J. & Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel & Patz, Jonathan Alan MD, MPH & Hickey, Valerie & Hudson, Peter, 2020. "Land use-induced spillover: priority actions for protected and conserved area managers," EcoEvoRxiv bmfhw, Center for Open Science.
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    7. Shyamsundar, Priya & Sauls, Laura Aileen & Cheek, Jennifer Zavaleta & Sullivan-Wiley, Kira & Erbaugh, J.T. & Krishnapriya, P.P., 2021. "Global forces of change: Implications for forest-poverty dynamics," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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    11. Lin Zhang & Jason Rohr & Ruina Cui & Yusi Xin & Lixia Han & Xiaona Yang & Shimin Gu & Yuanbao Du & Jing Liang & Xuyu Wang & Zhengjun Wu & Qin Hao & Xuan Liu, 2022. "Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Daniela Debone & Mariana V. da Costa & Simone G. E. K. Miraglia, 2020. "90 Days of COVID-19 Social Distancing and Its Impacts on Air Quality and Health in Sao Paulo, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Naughtin, Claire & Hajkowicz, Stefan & Schleiger, Emma & Bratanova, Alexandra & Cameron, Alicia & Zamin, T & Dutta, A, 2022. "Our Future World: Global megatrends impacting the way we live over coming decades," MPRA Paper 113900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. James McNamara & Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson & Katharine Abernethy & Donald Midoko Iponga & Hannah N. K. Sackey & Juliet H. Wright & EJ Milner-Gulland, 2020. "COVID-19, Systemic Crisis, and Possible Implications for the Wild Meat Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1045-1066, August.
    15. Matthew Gandy, 2023. "Zoonotic urbanisation: multispecies urbanism and the rescaling of urban epidemiology," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(13), pages 2529-2549, October.
    16. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2019. "Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8016, CESifo.
    17. Debashis Nath & Keerthi Sasikumar & Reshmita Nath & Wen Chen, 2021. "Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
    18. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Bratanova, Alexandra & Schleiger, Emma & Brosnan, A, 2020. "Global trade and investment megatrends," MPRA Paper 113240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Choudhury, Pranab R. & Ghosh, Ranjan K. & Sindhi, Sumita, 2020. "Covid-19 Crisis, Pandemic Resilience and Linkages to Land: An Exposition," IIMA Working Papers WP 2020-05-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    20. Renata L. Muylaert & David A. Wilkinson & Tigga Kingston & Paolo D’Odorico & Maria Cristina Rulli & Nikolas Galli & Reju Sam John & Phillip Alviola & David T. S. Hayman, 2023. "Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    21. Georgios Tsantopoulos & Aristotelis C. Papageorgiou & Evangelia Karasmanaki, 2021. "COVID-19: An Outcome of Biodiversity Loss or a Conspiracy? Investigating the Attitudes of Environmental Students," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    22. Caterina Lucarelli & Camilla Mazzoli & Sabrina Severini, 2020. "Applying the Theory of Planned Behavior to Examine Pro-Environmental Behavior: The Moderating Effect of COVID-19 Beliefs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    23. Heidi J. Albers & Katherine D. Lee & Jennifer R. Rushlow & Carlos Zambrana-Torrselio, 2020. "Disease Risk from Human–Environment Interactions: Environment and Development Economics for Joint Conservation-Health Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 929-944, August.
    24. Pan, QiuHui & Song, Sha & He, MingFeng, 2021. "The effect of quarantine measures for close contacts on the transmission of emerging infectious diseases with infectivity in incubation period," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    25. Juan Armando Torres Munguía & Florina Cristina Badarau & Luis Rodrigo Díaz Pavez & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2022. "A global dataset of pandemic- and epidemic-prone disease outbreaks," Post-Print hal-04029973, HAL.

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