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The Rise of the 'No Party' in England

Author

Listed:
  • Toke Aidt
  • Christopher Rauh

Abstract

We document a remarkable increase over the past two and a half decades in the fraction of people in England feeling close to no party – the rise of the “no party” – which, today, is close to constituting an absolute majority. We develop a new method to distinguish between age, period, and cohort effects based on individual longitudinal survey data and we show that the rise of the “no party” is driven much more by a secular trend (period effects) than by generation replacement (cohort effects). We show that the increase in “no party” supporters and in their turnout behavior can explain 80% of the observed decline in election turnout in England over the period. A detailed investigation of the dynamics of party identification shows that party political disengagement has become more persistent over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Toke Aidt & Christopher Rauh, 2019. "The Rise of the 'No Party' in England," CESifo Working Paper Series 7812, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7812
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Marshall, 2019. "The Anti‐Democrat Diploma: How High School Education Decreases Support for the Democratic Party," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(1), pages 67-83, January.
    2. Grasso, Maria Teresa & Farrall, Stephen & Gray, Emily & Hay, Colin & Jennings, Will, 2019. "Thatcher’s Children, Blair’s Babies, Political Socialization and Trickle-down Value Change: An Age, Period and Cohort Analysis," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 17-36, January.
    3. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    4. Yang Yang & Kenneth C. Land, 2008. "Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Fixed or Random Effects?," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 297-326, February.
    5. Aidt, T. S. & Rauh, C., 2017. "The Big Five personality traits and partisanship in England," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1745, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Kroh, Martin, 2014. "Growth trajectories in the strength of party identification: The legacy of autocratic regimes," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33, pages 90-101.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    age-period-cohort effects; party identification; democracy; England; Secular Disengagement Hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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