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Microeconomic uncertainty, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations

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  • Alessandria, George
  • Choi, Horag
  • Kaboski, Joseph P.
  • Midrigan, Virgiliu

Abstract

The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and effects of fluctuations in the dispersion of producer-level sales and production over the business cycle. On the theoretical side, we study the effect of exogenous first- and second-moment shocks to producer-level productivity in a two-country DSGE model with heterogeneous producers and an endogenous dynamic export participation decision. First-moment shocks cause endogenous fluctuations in producer-level dispersion by reallocating production internationally, while second-moment shocks lead to increases in trade relative to GDP in recessions. Empirically, using detailed product-level data in the motor vehicle industry and industry-level data of U.S. manufacturers, we find evidence that international reallocation is indeed important for understanding cross-industry variation in cyclical patterns of measured dispersion.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Kaboski, Joseph P. & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2015. "Microeconomic uncertainty, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:69:y:2015:i:c:p:20-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.11.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Sung Je Byun & Soojin Jo, 2018. "Heterogeneity in the dynamic effects of uncertainty on investment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 127-155, February.
    2. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    3. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    4. Ryan A. Decker & Pablo N. D'Erasmo & Hernan Moscoso Boedo, 2016. "Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 148-198, January.
    5. Lee, Junghoon, 2016. "The impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty when investment opportunities are endogenous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 105-124.
    6. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.
    7. Phelan, Gregory & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2019. "Securitized markets, international capital flows, and global welfare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 571-592.
    8. Carter Mix & George Alessandria, 2017. "The Global Trade Slowdown: A Dynamic Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 907, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. George Alessandria & Carter Mix, 2019. "Trade Policy is Real News: A quantitative analysis of past, current, and future changes in U.S. trade barriers," 2019 Meeting Papers 545, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Chandranath Amarasekara & Bernard Njindan Iyke & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2022. "The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Chakraborty, Indraneel & Hai, Rong & Holter, Hans A. & Stepanchuk, Serhiy, 2017. "The real effects of financial (dis)integration: A multi-country equilibrium analysis of Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 28-45.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sunk cost; Establishment heterogeneity; Exporting; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

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