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Political Leader Survival: Does Competence Matter?

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  • Shu Yu
  • Richard Jong-A-Pin

Abstract

We examine whether economic and military competence of political leaders affect their duration in office. We introduce leader heterogeneity in the selectorate theory of Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) and derive the hypothesis that in the presence of a revolutionary threat, economic competence is negatively related to political survival, but that the effect is moderated by the size of the winning coalition. As military and economic competence are negatively correlated, the opposite holds for military competence. We present empirical estimates using proxies for military and economic competence in a parametric Weibull duration model that support our theoretical predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Shu Yu & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2013. "Political Leader Survival: Does Competence Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4465, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mercier, Marion, 2016. "The return of the prodigy son: Do return migrants make better leaders?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 76-91.
    2. Axel Dreher & Shu Yu, 2016. "The Alma Mater Effect - Does Foreign Education of Political Leaders Influence Foreign Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5871, CESifo.
    3. Bennett, Daniel L. & Bjørnskov, Christian & Gohmann, Stephan F., 2021. "Coups, regime transitions, and institutional consequences," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 627-643.
    4. Christian Bjørnskov, 2020. "Why do military dictatorships become presidential democracies? Mapping the democratic interests of autocratic regimes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 21-43, October.
    5. Axel Dreher & Shu Yu, 2020. "The Alma Mater effect: Does foreign education of political leaders influence UNGA voting?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 45-64, October.
    6. Yu, Shu & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2020. "Rich or alive? Political (in)stability, political leader selection and economic growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 561-577.
    7. Kodjovi M. Eklou, 2020. "A Leadership Curse? Oil Price Shocks and the Selection of National Leaders," Cahiers de recherche 20-05, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political leader; survival analysis; leader competence; selectorate theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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