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No Country for Old Men: Aging Dictators and Economic Growth

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  • Richard Jong-A-Pin
  • Jochen O. Mierau

Abstract

This paper develops a model of the relationship between the age of a dictator and economic growth. In the model a dictator must spread the resources of the economy over his reign but faces mortality and political risk. The model shows that if the time horizon of the dictator decreases, either due to an increase of mortality risk or political risk, the economic growth rate decreases. The model predictions are supported by empirical evidence based on a threeway fixed effects model including country, year and dictator fixed effects for a sample of dictators from 116 countries. These results are robust to sample selection, the tenure of dictators, the definition of dictatorship, and a broad set of economic growth determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jochen O. Mierau, 2011. "No Country for Old Men: Aging Dictators and Economic Growth," Working Papers CEB 11-039, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/97265
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    Cited by:

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    2. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Sackey, Frank G., 2016. "Do political regime transitions in Africa Matter for Citizens’ Health Status," Working Papers 2072/267086, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    3. Gutmann, Jerg & Metelska-Szaniawska, Katarzyna & Voigt, Stefan, 2024. "Leader characteristics and constitutional compliance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Julieta Peveri, 2021. "The Wise, the Politician and the Strongman: National Leaders' Type and Quality of Governance," AMSE Working Papers 2120, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised May 2022.
    5. Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Mierau, Jochen O., 2022. "No country for old men: Aging dictators and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    6. Abel FRANCOIS & Sophie PANEL & Laurent WEILL, 2018. "Are Some Dictators More Attractive to Foreign Investors?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2018-05, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    7. Julieta Peveri, 2021. "The Wise, the Politician and the Strongman: National Leaders' Type and Quality of Governance," Working Papers halshs-03173020, HAL.
    8. Abel FRANCOIS & Sophie PANEL & Laurent WEILL, 2018. "Are Some Dictators More Attractive to Foreign Investors?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2018-05, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    9. Zhu, Chen & Xia, Yuqing & Liu, Qing & Hou, Bojun, 2023. "Deregulation and green innovation: Does cultural reform pilot project matter," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-105.
    10. Raul Magni Berton & Sophie Panel, 2017. "Strategic gerontocracy: why nondemocratic systems produce older leaders," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 409-427, June.
    11. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "Economic liberalization, political regimes and ideology," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 463-487, November.
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    13. Attila, Joseph G., 2022. "Does bank deposits volatility react to political instability in developing countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    14. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Sackey, Frank Gyimah, 2016. "Do Leaders' Characteristics and Regime Transitions in Africa Matter for Citizens' Health Status?," IZA Discussion Papers 10338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Khalifa, Sherif & Konso Mulali, Ben, 2020. "Who Becomes Minister in an Autocratic Regime? Evidence From DRC," MPRA Paper 103022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Peveri, Julieta, 2022. "The wise, the politician, and the strongman: Types of national leaders and quality of governance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 849-895.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; ; economic growth; government performance; political instability; political leaders;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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