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Why do military dictatorships become presidential democracies? Mapping the democratic interests of autocratic regimes

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  • Christian Bjørnskov

    (Aarhus University
    Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

Abstract

Recent data show that virtually all military dictatorships that democratize become presidential democracies. I hypothesize that the reason is that military interests are able to coordinate on status-preserving institutional change prior to democratization and prefer political institutions with strong veto players. Civilian interests are more likely to suffer from coordination failure by being more diverse and less cohesive, implying that most military democratizations are planned partially while most democratization events from civilian autocracy are unforeseen or poorly planned. Exploring the characteristics of 111 democratization episodes between 1950 and 2017 illustrates features broadly consistent with further theoretical predictions.

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  • Christian Bjørnskov, 2020. "Why do military dictatorships become presidential democracies? Mapping the democratic interests of autocratic regimes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 21-43, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:185:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-019-00736-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00736-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Bjørnskov & Stefan Voigt, 2022. "Terrorism and emergency constitutions in the Muslim world," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 305-318, May.
    2. Alexander Kemnitz & Martin Roessler, 2023. "The effects of economic development on democratic institutions and repression in non-democratic regimes: theory and evidence," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 145-164, June.
    3. Bjørnskov, Christian & Pfaff, Katharina, 2021. "Differences matter: The effect of coup types on physical integrity rights," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dictatorship; Democracy; Political institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • K16 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Election Law
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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