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On the Conditional Effects of IMF Program Participation on Output Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Binder
  • Marcel Bluhm

Abstract

The empirical evidence currently available in the literature regarding the effects of a country's IMF program participation on its output growth is rather mixed. To shed new evidence on this issue, in this paper we specify a state-dependent panel data model accounting in particular for program participation selection and the potential conditionality of the output growth effects of program participation on a country's degree of program implementation and institutional factors such as quality of governance, internal stability, health, and educational attainment. We find that the effects of IMF program participation on output growth vary systematically with the degree of program implementation as well as our index of institutional factors, and that these effects are positive only if the IMF program is implemented to a sufficient degree or if the program participation is coupled with sufficient progress in improving institutional quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Binder & Marcel Bluhm, 2010. "On the Conditional Effects of IMF Program Participation on Output Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3161, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Usman Khalid & Luke Okafor & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Economic reform and political stagnation: The inconsistent patterns of institutional change," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 813-844, October.
    2. Elsayyad, May & Konrad, Kai A., 2012. "Fighting multiple tax havens," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 295-305.
    3. Guo, Yanling, 2015. "A reconsideration of multiple equilibria in the analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-52.
    4. Guo, Yanling, 2015. "The role of lenders' trust in determining borrowing conditions for sovereign debt: An analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Roman Kononenko, 2015. "IMF Lending and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Ukraine," Papers 1509.01741, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IMF program participation; output growth; panel sample selection models; conditional pooling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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