IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1509.01741.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

IMF Lending and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Kononenko

Abstract

This study uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) Methodology as well as Vector Error Correction (VEC) Methodology to examine the existence and direction of causality between economic growth and IMF lending for Ukraine. The paper examines the IMF lending data for the period of 1991-2010. Robust empirical analysis indicates that IMF lending has a negative effect of on Ukraine's economic growth in the short term. Policy implications of this finding are that, despite short-run decline in economic growth, IMF lending can result in a long-run sustainable growth for Ukraine. For this, policymakers need to ensure that fund's money are used not only to cover budget's deficit, but also to finance institutional reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Kononenko, 2015. "IMF Lending and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Ukraine," Papers 1509.01741, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1509.01741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.01741
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, October.
    2. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
    3. James Vreeland, 2006. "IMF program compliance: Aggregate index versus policy specific research strategies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 359-378, December.
    4. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & Mecagni, Mauro & Schadler, Susan, 2000. "Evaluating the effect of IMF lending to low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 495-526, April.
    5. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
    6. Michael Binder & Marcel Bluhm, 2010. "On the Conditional Effects of IMF Program Participation on Output Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3161, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2010. "The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 73-95, March.
    2. Abbott, Philip & Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Tarp, Finn, 2010. "IMF and economic reform in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 17-26, February.
    3. Molly Bauer & Cesi Cruz & Benjamin Graham, 2012. "Democracies only: When do IMF agreements serve as a seal of approval?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 33-58, March.
    4. Martin Steinwand & Randall Stone, 2008. "The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 123-149, June.
    5. Mr. Christian Mumssen & Yasemin Bal Gunduz & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Ms. Linda Kaltani, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term," IMF Working Papers 2013/273, International Monetary Fund.
    6. James Vreeland, 2006. "IMF program compliance: Aggregate index versus policy specific research strategies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 359-378, December.
    7. Dreher, Axel & Walter, Stefanie, 2010. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & James Raymond Vreeland, 2010. "Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence IMF Conditionality?," KOF Working papers 10-262, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    9. Thomas Stubbs & Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Lawrence King, 2020. "How to evaluate the effects of IMF conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-73, January.
    10. Nataliya Yu. Tanyushcheva, 2019. "Background of Anti-Money Laundering Regulation in Modern Economic Theory," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 96-107, December.
    11. Michael Binder & Marcel Bluhm, 2010. "On the Conditional Effects of IMF Program Participation on Output Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3161, CESifo.
    12. Balima, Hippolyte W. & Sokolova, Anna, 2021. "IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Ifrah Siddique & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Abdullah Ejaz & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau & Toni Calugaru, 2021. "Why Do Countries Request Assistance from International Monetary Fund? An Empirical Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, March.
    14. repec:got:cegedp:104 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2011. "How soon is now? The effects of the IMF on economic reforms in Latin America," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 189-213, July.
    16. Li, Larry & Sy, Malick & McMurray, Adela, 2015. "Insights into the IMF bailout debate: A review and research agenda," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 891-914.
    17. Brendan Skip Mark & Huei-Jyun Ye & Andrew Foote & Tiffani Crippin, 2021. "It’s a Hard-Knock Life: Child Labor Practices and Compliance with IMF Agreements," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    19. Binder, Michael & Bluhm, Marcel, 2017. "On the conditional effects of IMF program participation on output growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 192-214.
    20. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
    21. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2008. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 219-266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1509.01741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.