IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2966.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change and Carbon Tax Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hoel

Abstract

If governments cannot commit to future carbon tax rates, investments in greenhouse gas mitigation will be based on uncertain and/or wrong predictions about these tax rates. Predictions about future carbon tax rates are also important for decisions made by owners of non-renewable carbon resources. The effects of the size of expected future carbon taxes on near-term emissions and investments in substitutes for carbon energy depend significantly on how rapidly extraction costs increase with increasing total extraction. In addition, the time profile of the returns to investments in non-carbon substitutes is important for the effects on emissions and investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hoel, 2010. "Climate Change and Carbon Tax Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2966, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2966
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2966_rev.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sinclair, Peter J N, 1992. "High Does Nothing and Rising Is Worse: Carbon Taxes Should Keep Declining to Cut Harmful Emissions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(1), pages 41-52, March.
    2. Hoel, Michael & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1996. "Depletion of fossil fuels and the impacts of global warming," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 115-136, June.
    3. Reyer Gerlagh, 2011. "Too Much Oil," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 57(1), pages 79-102, March.
    4. Michael Hoel, 2008. "Bush Meets Hotelling: Effects of Improved Renewable Energy Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2492, CESifo.
    5. Alistair Ulph & David Ulph, 2009. "Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit," Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics and Finance 200909, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
    7. Olli Tahvonen, 1997. "Fossil Fuels, Stock Externalities, and Backstop Technology," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 855-874, November.
    8. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn.
    9. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2010. "Too Much Oil," Sustainable Development Papers 59419, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Jon Strand, 2007. "Technology Treaties and Fossil-Fuels Extraction," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 129-142.
    11. Olli Tahvonen, 1995. "Dynamics of pollution control when damage is sensitive to the rate of pollution accumulation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 9-27, January.
    12. Donald A. Hanson, 1980. "Increasing Extraction Costs and Resource Prices: Some Further Results," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(1), pages 335-342, Spring.
    13. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Tirole, Jean, 1996. "Pollution permits and environmental innovation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1-2), pages 127-140, October.
    14. Withagen, Cees, 1994. "Pollution and exhaustibility of fossil fuels," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 235-242, August.
    15. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 2009. "Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-42, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    16. Alistair Ulph & David Ulph, 2009. "Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit," Working Papers 0921, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    17. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1994. "The Optimal Time Path of a Carbon Tax," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 857-868, Supplemen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bosi, Stefano & Desmarchelier, David, 2018. "Natural cycles and pollution," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 10-20.
    2. Quentin Grafton, R. & Kompas, Tom & Van Long, Ngo, 2012. "Substitution between biofuels and fossil fuels: Is there a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 328-341.
    3. Ngo Van Long, 2014. "The Green Paradox in Open Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 4639, CESifo.
    4. Yu Yan & Yiming Lei & Yuyang Tang & Xufeng Zhao, 2023. "Ineffectiveness of carbon cap-and-trade market," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(7), pages 2317-2342, November.
    5. Nachtigall, Daniel & Rübbelke, Dirk, 2016. "The green paradox and learning-by-doing in the renewable energy sector," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 74-92.
    6. Eichner, Thomas & Pethig, Ru¨diger, 2013. "Flattening the carbon extraction path in unilateral cost-effective action," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 185-201.
    7. Emmanuel Abeka & Felix A. Asante & Wolfram Laube & Samuel N. A. Codjoe, 2020. "Contested causes of flooding in poor urban areas in Accra, Ghana: an actor-oriented perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3033-3049, April.
    8. Jus Darko & Meier Volker, 2015. "Announcing is Bad, Delaying is Worse: Another Pitfall in Well-intended Climate Policy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 286-297, June.
    9. Alistair Ulph & David Ulph, 2013. "Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(2), pages 161-176, October.
    10. Svenn Jensens & Kristina Mohlin & Karen Pittel & Thomas Sterner, 2015. "An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 246-265.
    11. Edwin van der Werf & Corrado Di Maria, 2011. "Unintended Detrimental Effects of Environmental Policy: The Green Paradox and Beyond," CESifo Working Paper Series 3466, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Hoel, 2008. "Bush Meets Hotelling: Effects of Improved Renewable Energy Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2492, CESifo.
    2. Hoel, Michael, 2013. "Supply Side Climate Policy and the Green Paradox," Memorandum 03/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Quentin Grafton, R. & Kompas, Tom & Van Long, Ngo, 2012. "Substitution between biofuels and fossil fuels: Is there a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 328-341.
    4. Hoel, Michael & Jensen, Svenn, 2012. "Cutting costs of catching carbon—Intertemporal effects under imperfect climate policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 680-695.
    5. Hoel, Michael, 2009. "Bush Meets Hotelling: Effects of Improved Renewable Energy Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 47175, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Ngo Van LONG, 2014. "The Green Paradox under Imperfect Substitutability between Clean and Dirty Fuels," Cahiers de recherche 02-2014, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    7. Corrado Di Maria & Sjak Smulders & Edwin Werf, 2017. "Climate Policy with Tied Hands: Optimal Resource Taxation Under Implementation Lags," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 537-551, March.
    8. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Is there really a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 342-363.
    9. Michael Hoel, 2011. "The Supply Side of CO 2 with Country Heterogeneity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(4), pages 846-865, December.
    10. Luise Röpke, 2015. "Essays on the Integration of New Energy Sources into Existing Energy Systems," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 58.
    11. Nachtigall, Daniel & Rübbelke, Dirk, 2016. "The green paradox and learning-by-doing in the renewable energy sector," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 74-92.
    12. van der Werf, Edwin & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Imperfect Environmental Policy and Polluting Emissions: The Green Paradox and Beyond," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 153-194, March.
    13. Ngo Van Long, 2014. "The Green Paradox in Open Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 4639, CESifo.
    14. Christian Beermann, 2015. "Climate Policy and the Intertemporal Supply of Fossil Resources," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62.
    15. Grimaud, André & Rouge, Luc, 2014. "Carbon sequestration, economic policies and growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-331.
    16. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Too much coal, too little oil," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 62-77.
    17. Luca Spinesi, 2012. "Global Warming and Endogenous Technological Change: Revisiting the Green Paradox," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 545-559, April.
    18. Hotel, Michael, 2008. "Bush Meets Hotelling: Effects of Improved Renewable Energy Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Memorandum 29/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    19. Frederick Van Der Ploeg & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth, Renewables, And The Optimal Carbon Tax," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 283-311, February.
    20. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2013. "The atmospheric carbon resilience problem: A theoretical analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 618-636.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; carbon tax; green paradox; commitment; exhaustible resources;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2966. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.