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Too Much Oil

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  • Gerlagh, Reyer

Abstract

Fear for oil exhaustion and its consequences on economic growth has been a driver of a rich literature on exhaustible resources from the 1970s onwards. But our view on oil has remarkably changed and we now worry how we should constrain climate change damages associated with oil and other fossil fuel use. In this climate change debate, economists have pointed to a green paradox: when policy makers stimulate the development of non-carbon energy sources to (partly) replace fossil fuels in the future, oil markets may anticipate a future reduction in demand and increase current supply. The availability of ‘green’ technologies may increase damages. The insight comes from the basic exhaustible resource model. We reproduce the green paradox and to facilitate discussion differentiate between a weak and a strong version, related to short-term and long-term effects, respectively. Then we analyze the green paradox in 2 standard modifications of the exhaustible resource model. We find that increasing fossil fuel extraction costs counteracts the strong green paradox, while with imperfect energy substitutes both the weak and strong green paradox may vanish.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlagh, Reyer, 2010. "Too Much Oil," Sustainable Development Papers 59419, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemdp:59419
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.59419
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/59419/files/NDL2010-014.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Spinesi, 2012. "Global Warming and Endogenous Technological Change: Revisiting the Green Paradox," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 545-559, April.
    2. Färnstrand Damsgaard, Erika, 2012. "Exhaustible resources, technology choice and industrialization of developing countries," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-294.
    3. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2013. "The atmospheric carbon resilience problem: A theoretical analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 618-636.
    4. Svenn Jensens & Kristina Mohlin & Karen Pittel & Thomas Sterner, 2015. "An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 246-265.
    5. Geoffrey Heal, 2022. "Economic Aspects of the Energy Transition," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 5-21, September.
    6. Elizabeth Baldwin & Yongyang Cai & Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2018. "To Build or Not to Build? Capital Stocks and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6884, CESifo.
    7. Cathrine Hagem & Halvor Briseid Storrøsten, 2019. "Supply‐ versus Demand‐Side Policies in the Presence of Carbon Leakage and the Green Paradox," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 379-406, January.
    8. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2011. "When do increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming? A note on the green paradox," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2208-2212, April.
    9. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    10. Zhang, Kun & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the green paradox in China: From the perspective of fiscal decentralization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 203-211.
    11. Ngo Long, 2011. "Dynamic Games in the Economics of Natural Resources: A Survey," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 115-148, March.
    12. Michael Hoel, 2010. "Climate Change and Carbon Tax Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2966, CESifo.

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    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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