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Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-Linear Factor Approach

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Burcu Erdogan
  • Vladimir Kuzin

Abstract

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including Euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2009. "Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-Linear Factor Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2845, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2845
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across the U.S. States," Working Papers 201539, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Asongu, Simplice A. & Andrés, Antonio R., 2020. "Trajectories of knowledge economy in SSA and MENA countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 36-58.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2014. "Tax revenues convergence across ASEAN, Pacific and Oceania countries: Evidence from club convergence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 11-21.
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    7. Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel & María Belén Lozano & Maria Fernanda Ludovina Inácio Matias, 2022. "The Low‐carbon Equity Market: A New Alternative for Investment Diversification?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(1), pages 34-47, February.
    8. Elzbieta Szulc & Dagna Wleklinska & Karolina Gorna & Joanna Gorna, 2014. "The significance of distance between stock exchanges undergoing the process of convergence: An analysis of selected world stock exchanges during the period of 2004-2012," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 125-144.
    9. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou, 2016. "Energy productivity convergence: new evidence from club converging," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 142-145, February.
    10. Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos & Christiano Modesto Penna & Ana Balbina Gomes Silva, 2015. "Mutual Investments Funds in Shares in Brazil: Incentives, Management and Convergence," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(2), pages 110-144, March.
    11. Simplice Asongu, 2013. "Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 45-60, November.
    12. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 186-201, December.
    13. Rughoo, Aarti & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Integration in European retail banking: Evidence from savings and lending rates to non-financial corporations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1307-1327.
    14. Elzbieta Szulc & Dagna Wleklinska, 2015. "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Convergence of Development Level of Selected Stock Exchanges in the Period of 2004–2012," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 5-26.
    15. Rughoo, Aarti & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2014. "The global financial crisis and integration in European retail banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 28-41.
    16. Bai, Caiquan & Yan, Hong & Yin, Shanggang & Feng, Chen & Wei, Qian, 2021. "Exploring the development trend of internet finance in China: Perspective from club convergence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    17. Rughoo, Aarti & You, Kefei, 2016. "Asian financial integration: Global or regional? Evidence from money and bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 419-434.
    18. Ekaterina Dorodnykh, 2012. "What Is the Degree of Convergence among Developed Equity Markets?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 2-16, April.
    19. Gabriel, Vítor, 2018. "Environmentally sustainable investment: Dynamics between global thematic indices," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    20. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2016. "Old Wine In A New Bottle: Trade Openness And Fdi Flows—Are The Emerging Economies Converging?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 336-351, April.
    21. Peter, Manuel, 2015. "Konvergenz der europäischen Aktienmärkte: Eine Analyse der Entwicklungen und Herausforderungen für Investoren," Arbeitspapiere 150, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market; financial integration; European Monetary Union convergence; factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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