Weighting Competing Models
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Chiara Aina & Florian H. Schneider, 2025. "Weighting Competing Models," CEBI working paper series 25-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
References listed on IDEAS
- Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993.
"Updating Ambiguous Beliefs,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
- Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1991. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Discussion Papers 924, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Itzhak Gilboa & David Scheidler, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Post-Print hal-00753150, HAL.
- Joshua Schwartzstein & Adi Sunderam, 2021.
"Using Models to Persuade,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 276-323, January.
- Joshua Schwartzstein & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Using Models to Persuade," NBER Working Papers 26109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roland G FryerJr & Philipp Harms & Matthew O Jackson, 2019. "Updating Beliefs when Evidence is Open to Interpretation: Implications for Bias and Polarization," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1470-1501.
- Pedro Bordalo & John J. Conlon & Nicola Gennaioli & Spencer Yongwook Kwon & Andrei Shleifer, 2023.
"How People Use Statistics,"
NBER Working Papers
31631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pedro Bordalo & John Conlon & Nicola Gennaioli & Spencer Kwon & Andrei Shleifer, 2023. "How People Use Statistics," Working Papers 699, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- David M. Grether, 1980.
"Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(3), pages 537-557.
- Grether, David M., "undated". "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," Working Papers 245, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2009.
"Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 147-152, October.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2008. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2008. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," IZA Discussion Papers 3481, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2009. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Post-Print hal-00696620, HAL.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2009. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Working Papers 0465, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2008. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Papers 08-05, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Sandro Ambuehl & Heidi C. Thysen, 2024.
"Choosing between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
11103, CESifo.
- Ambuehl, Sandro & Thysen, Heidi Christina, 2024. "Choosing Between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 7/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
- Sandro Ambuehl & Heidi C. Thysen, 2024. "Choosing between causal interpretations: an experimental study," ECON - Working Papers 458, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
- Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998.
"A model of investor sentiment,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
- Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," Scholarly Articles 30747159, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Stefano DellaVigna & Devin Pope, 2018.
"What Motivates Effort? Evidence and Expert Forecasts,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 1029-1069.
- Stefano DellaVigna & Devin Pope, 2016. "What Motivates Effort? Evidence and Expert Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 22193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2021. "A maximum likelihood approach to combining forecasts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104116, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2020.
"A Model of Competing Narratives,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3786-3816, December.
- Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2018. "A Model of Competing Narratives," CEPR Discussion Papers 13319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2018. "A Model of Competing Narratives," Papers 1811.04232, arXiv.org.
- Hoppe, Eva I. & Kusterer, David J., 2011. "Behavioral biases and cognitive reflection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 97-100, February.
- J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2024. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-032, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Dan Ariely & Anat Bracha & Stephan Meier, 2009.
"Doing Good or Doing Well? Image Motivation and Monetary Incentives in Behaving Prosocially,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 544-555, March.
- Dan Ariely & Anat Bracha & Stephan Meier, 2007. "Doing good or doing well? Image motivation and monetary incentives in behaving prosocially," Working Papers 07-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Ariely, Dan & Bracha, Anat & Meier, Stephan, 2007. "Doing Good or Doing Well? Image Motivation and Monetary Incentives in Behaving Prosocially," IZA Discussion Papers 2968, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler & Yair Weiss, 2021. "Cheating with Models," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 417-434, December.
- Chad Kendall & Ryan Oprea, 2024. "On the complexity of forming mental models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), pages 175-211, January.
- Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2021. "A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Combining Forecasts," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), January.
- Benjamin Enke & Thomas Graeber, 2023. "Cognitive Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2021-2067.
- David Danz & Lise Vesterlund & Alistair J. Wilson, 2022. "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(9), pages 2851-2883, September.
- Matthew Rabin & Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez, 2024. "Belief Bias Identification," Papers 2404.09297, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
- Olivier Compte, 2023. "Belief formation and the persistence of biased beliefs," Papers 2310.08466, arXiv.org.
- Alice Soldà & Marie Claire Villeval, 2025. "Narratives as a Persuasion Tool in Performance Appraisals," Working Papers 2505, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
- Ritika & Nawal Kishor, 2020. "Development and validation of behavioral biases scale: a SEM approach," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 237-259, November.
- Mohammad Noori, 2016. "Cognitive reflection as a predictor of susceptibility to behavioral anomalies," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(1), pages 114-120, January.
- Kai Barron, 2021.
"Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58, March.
- Barron, Kai, 2021. "Belief updating: does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58.
- Barron, Kai, 2016. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
- Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309r, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2019.
- Barron, Kai, 2020. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309r2, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2020.
- Barron, Kai, 2018. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," MPRA Paper 84742, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief Updating: Does the \'Good-News, Bad-News\' Asymmetry Extend to Purely Financial Domains?," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 170, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
- Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2020.
"Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
8168, CESifo.
- Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David C. Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2021. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?," NBER Working Papers 28650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018.
"What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2016. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Working Papers 16-20, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2016. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Working Papers 1627, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Post-Print halshs-01937747, HAL.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2016. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Working Papers halshs-01364432, HAL.
- Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier l’Haridon & Chen Li, 2018.
"The Effect of Learning on Ambiguity Attitudes,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2181-2198, May.
- Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier L’haridon & Chen Li, 2018. "The Effect of Learning on Ambiguity Attitudes," Post-Print halshs-01525391, HAL.
- Katherine B. Coffman & Scott Kostyshak & Perihan O. Saygin & Katie Coffman, 2024. "Choosing and Using Information in Evaluation Decisions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11024, CESifo.
- David Hirshleifer, 2001.
"Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
- Hirshleifer, David, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 5300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018.
"Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases,"
NBER Working Papers
25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Zimper, Alexander, 2023. "Unrealized arbitrage opportunities in naive equilibria with non-Bayesian belief processes," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 27-41.
- Rabin, Matthew, 2000.
"Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt4sw8n41t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0012002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Economics Working Papers E00-282, University of California at Berkeley.
- J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Duttle, Kai, 2015. "Disentangling two causes of biased probability judgment: Cognitive skills and perception of randomness," Ruhr Economic Papers 568, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Hügelschäfer, Sabine, 2012. "Faith in intuition and behavioral biases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 182-192.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021.
"Narratives about the Macroeconomy,"
CEBI working paper series
21-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
- Andre, Peter & Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher & Wiederholt, Mirko & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2024. "Narratives about the macroeconomy," SAFE Working Paper Series 426, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart & Ingar K. Haaland, 2023. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10535, CESifo.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 127, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
- Andre, Peter & Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_350, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
- Paul Grass & Philipp Schirmer & Malin Siemers, 2025.
"Sticky Models,"
ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series
355, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
- Paul Grass & Philipp Schirmer & Malin Siemers, 2025. "Sticky Models," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_655, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
- Gerrit Bauch & Manuel Foerster, 2024. "Strategic communication of narratives," Papers 2410.23259, arXiv.org.
More about this item
Keywords
belief updating; narratives; mental models; experiments;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
- C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.