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Sticky Models

Author

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  • Paul Grass
  • Philipp Schirmer
  • Malin Siemers

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Paul Grass & Philipp Schirmer & Malin Siemers, 2025. "Sticky Models," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_655, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_655
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp655
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    Keywords

    mental models; learning dynamics; attention; mental representation; bounded rationality People often form mental models based on incomplete information; revising them as new relevant data becomes available. In this paper; we experimentally investigate how individuals update their models when data on predictive variables are gradually revealed. We find that people’s models tend to be ‘sticky; ’ as their final models remain strongly influenced by earlier models formed using a subset of variables. Guided by a simple framework highlighting the role of attention in shaping model revisions; we document that only participants who exert lower cognitive effort during the revising stage; relative to the initial model formation stage – as proxied by time spent – exhibit significant model stickiness. Additionally; subjects’ final models are strongly predicted by their reasoning type – their self-described approach to extracting models from multidimensional data. While model stickiness varies across reasoning types; effort allocation across stages remains a strong predictor of stickiness even when accounting for reasoning.;
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    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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