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Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Aya Aboulhosn
  • Cevat Giray Aksoy
  • Berkay Ozcan

Abstract

Debates about immigration’s role in addressing population aging typically concentrate on immigrant fertility rates. Moreover, standard projections account for migration’s impact on overall population growth while largely overlooking how immigration might affect native fertility. In contrast, we show that forced immigration influences native fertility as well. We investigate this relationship by examining the influx of refugees into Türkiye following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Using two complementary instrumental variable strategies, we find robust evidence that native fertility increases in response to forced migration. This result holds across three distinct datasets and is further supported by a corresponding rise in subjective fertility measures, such as the ideal number of children. Additionally, we explore four potential mechanisms and document significant heterogeneity in fertility responses among different native subgroups. Our findings suggest that factors related to the labor market and norm transmission may help explain the observed increase in native fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Aya Aboulhosn & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Berkay Ozcan, 2025. "Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 11683, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11683
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    2. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Guillaume Daudin & Raphaël Franck & Hillel Rapoport, 2019. "Can Internal Migration Foster the Convergence in Regional Fertility Rates? Evidence from 19th Century France," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1618-1692.
    4. Schmitz, Sophia & Weinhardt, Felix, 2019. "Immigration and the Evolution of Local Cultural Norms," IZA Discussion Papers 12509, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Onur Altındağ & Neeraj Kaushal, 2021. "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 149-178, January.
    6. Altındağ, Onur & Bakış, Ozan & Rozo, Sandra V., 2020. "Blessing or burden? Impacts of refugees on businesses and the informal economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced migration; fertility; refugees; social interactions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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