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Uncertain Air Quality Impacts of Automobile Retirement Programs

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  • Hsu, Shi-Ling
  • Sperling, Daniel

Abstract

The increasing cost of additional air pollution control has stimulated a search for less expensive market-based regulatory approaches. One market-based approach widely embraced by regulators and politicians is the accelerated retirement and scrappage of old automobiles. Businesses are granted emissions reductions credits by air quality regulators in exchange for removing old and presumably high-polluting automobiles from the road. In reviewing the data from recent programs and exploring assumptions made in evaluations of such programs, it was found that the air quality benefits are uncertain and may be small and that the costs may be higher than those for many other emission control strategies. In some regions and under some conditions, accelerated retirement programs may be much more effective than in other regions and under other conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Shi-Ling & Sperling, Daniel, 1994. "Uncertain Air Quality Impacts of Automobile Retirement Programs," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9hk939jn, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt9hk939jn
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles F. Manski & Ephraim Goldin, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Automobile Scrappage," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 365-375, November.
    2. Parks, Richard W, 1977. "Determinants of Scrapping Rates for Postwar Vintage Automobiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1099-1115, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jie Lin & Cynthia Chen & Debbie Niemeier, 2008. "An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 219-235, March.
    2. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Maconi, Laura & Shirvani, Tara & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part I: Externalities and economic policies in road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 2-45.
    3. Balaguer, Jacint & Pernías, José C. & Ripollés, Jordi, 2023. "Is vehicle scrapping affected by low-emission zones? The case of Madrid," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Madre, Jean-Loup & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2004. "An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 905-926, December.

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