Estimating the longevity of electric vehicles: what do 300 million MOT test results tell us?

Knowing how long the average vehicle remains roadworthy before being scrapped is a crucial input into life cycle assessment (LCA) and total cost of ownership (TCO) studies of different vehicle powertrains. This study leverages a dataset of over 300 million MOT records from 2005 to 2022 for over 30 million vehicles registered in Great Britain and uses parametric survival analysis with interval-censored data to examine the longevity of various powertrains under real usage conditions. Our findings reveal that (plugin) hybrid electric vehicles have the longest expected longevity in terms of years and mileage, both of which are about 50% higher than those of an average fleet vehicle. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), while initially showing lower reliability, have benefited from rapid technological improvements such that the latest BEVs in our sample match the lifespan of petrol vehicles despite being used more intensively. Longevity is also impacted by engine size, location, and make of vehicle. The results provide parameter estimates that can be used to update TCO and LCA models and also shed light on EV diffusion patterns, fleet replacement strategies, and end-of-life treatment planning, including the increasingly important debate around EV battery recycling and second-life options.