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Achieving an 80% Carbon Free Electricity System in China by 2035

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  • Abhyankar, Nikit
  • Lin, Jiang
  • Kahrl, Fredrich
  • Yin, Shengfei
  • Paliwal, Umed
  • Liu, Xu
  • Khanna, Nina
  • Phadke, Amol A
  • Luo, Qian

Abstract

Dramatic reductions in solar, wind, and battery storage costs create new opportunities to reduce emissions and costs in China’s electricity sector, beyond current policy goals. This study examines the cost, reliability, emissions, public health, and employment implications of increasing the share of non-fossil fuel (“carbon free”) electricity generation in China to 80% by 2035. The analysis uses state-of-the-art modeling with high resolution load, wind, and solar inputs. The study finds that achieving an 80% carbon free electricity system in China by 2035 could reduce wholesale electricity costs, relative to a current policy baseline, while maintaining high levels of reliability, reducing deaths from air pollution, and increasing employment. In our 80% scenario, wind and solar generation capacity reach 3 TW and battery storage capacity reaches 0.4 TW by 2035, implying a rapid scale up in these resources that will require changes in policy targets, markets and regulation, and land use policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhyankar, Nikit & Lin, Jiang & Kahrl, Fredrich & Yin, Shengfei & Paliwal, Umed & Liu, Xu & Khanna, Nina & Phadke, Amol A & Luo, Qian, 2022. "Achieving an 80% Carbon Free Electricity System in China by 2035," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9183b502, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt9183b502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levin, Todd & Botterud, Audun, 2015. "Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 392-406.
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    1. Kahrl, Fritz & Lin, Jiang, 2024. "Changing economics of China’s power system suggest that batteries and renewables may be a lower cost way to meet peak demand growth than coal," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt83v0m2zw, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Xu, Chongchong, 2024. "The effects of industrial robots on firm energy intensity: From the perspective of technological innovation and electrification," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Gaoyuan Xu & Xiaojing Wang, 2022. "Research on the Electricity Market Clearing Model for Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Park, Musik & Wang, Zhiyuan & Li, Lanyu & Wang, Xiaonan, 2023. "Multi-objective building energy system optimization considering EV infrastructure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).

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    Keywords

    Environmental Sciences; Environmental Management; Affordable and Clean Energy; Energy Modelling; Energy management; Energy policy; Energy resources; Energy sustainability;
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