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Rotation as Contagion Mitigation

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  • Steiner, Jakub
  • Galeotti, Andrea
  • Ely, Jeffrey

Abstract

We study rotation schemes that govern individuals' activities within an organization during an epidemic. We optimize the frequency of rotation and degree of cross-mixing of the rotating subpopulations. Frequency affects risk over the length of diffusion within the infected subpopulation until the organization detects and/or reacts to the infection. If the reaction time is short, then such risk is undesirable since the growth of the prevalence is initially convex in time. Frequent rotation, which acts as insurance against exposure time risk, is then optimal. Infrequent rotation becomes optimal if the organization reacts slowly. Mixing of the rotating subpopulations is detrimental because it increases the share of interactions between sick and healthy individuals. However, the effect of mixing is small if the terminal prevalence is low in the absence of mixing.

Suggested Citation

  • Steiner, Jakub & Galeotti, Andrea & Ely, Jeffrey, 2020. "Rotation as Contagion Mitigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14953, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14953
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    1. Mohammad Akbarpour & Cody Cook & Aude Marzuoli & Simon Mongey & Abhishek Nagaraj & Matteo Saccarola & Pietro Tebaldi & Shoshana Vasserman & Hanbin Yang, 2020. "Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response," NBER Working Papers 27374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. repec:nas:journl:v:115:y:2018:p:e6996-e7004 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "An economic model of the Covid-19 epidemic: The importance of testing and age-specific policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "An economic model of the Covid-19 epidemic: The importance of testing and age-specific policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Korpela, Ville & Lombardi, Michele & Saulle, Riccardo D., 2024. "Designing rotation programs: Limits and possibilities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 77-102.
    2. Hedlund, Jonas & Hernandez-Chanto, Allan & Oyarzun, Carlos, 2024. "Contagion management through information disclosure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Josef Jablonský & Michal Černý & Juraj Pekár, 2022. "The last dozen of years of OR research in Czechia and Slovakia," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(2), pages 435-447, June.
    4. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Lidia Betcheva & Feryal Erhun & Antoine Feylessoufi & Peter Fryers & Paulo Gonçalves & Houyuan Jiang & Paul Kattuman & Tom Pape & Anees Pari & Stefan Scholtes & Carina Tyrrell, 2024. "An Adaptive Research Approach to COVID-19 Forecasting for Regional Health Systems in England," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 500-516, November.
    6. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    7. Timothy Besley & Nicholas Stern, 2020. "The Economics of Lockdown," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 493-513, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rotation; Epidemic mitigation;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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