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Identifying Uncertainty Shocks due to Geopolitical Swings in Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Seohyun Lee

    (Macroeconomics Team, Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea)

  • Inhwan So

    (International Department, The Bank of Korea)

  • Jongrim Ha

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

Using a novel set of instrumental variables in a structural VAR framework, we investigate the economic impact of uncertainty shocks stemming from geopolitical swings in South Korea. We construct robust instrumental variables for examining the variations in uncertainty due to geopolitical swings by observing high-frequency changes in financial asset returns and their volatilities at around the times of such geopolitical events. Our empirical results show that heightened (reduced) geopolitical uncertainty has a negative (positive) impact on macroeconomic outcomes in South Korea. We provide evidence that financial and capital market movements - fluctuations in exchange rates and sovereign spreads, changes in financial asset prices and market volatility, and swings in foreign investment - play important roles in the transmission of uncertainty shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So & Jongrim Ha, 2018. "Identifying Uncertainty Shocks due to Geopolitical Swings in Korea," Working Papers 2018-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    • Handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1826
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    File URL: http://papers.bok.or.kr/RePEc_attach/wpaper/english/wp-2018-26.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Seungho & Lee, Jongmin & Lee, Seohyun, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns: Evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics," MPRA Paper 108006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jae Young Jang & Erdal Atukeren, 2019. "Sustainable Local Currency Debt: An Analysis of Foreigners’ Korea Treasury Bonds Investments Using a LA-VARX Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-23, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Geopolitical risk; IV SVAR; South and North Korea.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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