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How credible is the North Korean threat?

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  • Byung-Yeon Kim
  • Gérard Roland

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecot12044-abs-0001"> We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non-credible.

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  • Byung-Yeon Kim & Gérard Roland, 2014. "How credible is the North Korean threat?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(3), pages 433-459, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:22:y:2014:i:3:p:433-459
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecot.2014.22.issue-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Suyeon, 2020. "Rare disaster risk and exchange rates: An empirical investigation of South Korean exchange rates under tension between the two Koreas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    2. Lee, Inho & Yoo, Shiyong, 2020. "Does peace boost stock prices? Evidence from the Korean stock market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. In Huh & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 55-82, March.
    4. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    5. Sunkung Choi, 2023. "Measuring economic diplomacy using event study method: the case of EU-China summit talks and Airbus stock price changes," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 155-171, June.
    6. Dibooglu, Sel & Cevik, Emrah. I., 2016. "The effect of North Korean threats on financial markets in South Korea and Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 18-26.
    7. Cheolbeom Park & Suyeon Park, 2018. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation of South Korean Exchange Rates under Tension between the Two Koreas," Working Papers 2018-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    8. Jung, Seungho & Lee, Jongmin & Lee, Seohyun, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns: Evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics," MPRA Paper 108006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kim, Kyoochul, 2020. "Finding Loopholes in Sanctions: Effects of Sanctions on North Korea’s Refined Oil Prices," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 42(4), pages 1-25.
    10. Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So & Jongrim Ha, 2018. "Identifying Uncertainty Shocks due to Geopolitical Swings in Korea," Working Papers 2018-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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