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Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy

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With business leverage at record levels, the effects of corporate debt overhang on growth and investment have become a prominent concern. In this paper, we study the effects of corporate debt overhang based on long-run cross-country data covering the near universe modern business cycles. We show that business credit booms typically do not leave a lasting imprint on the macroeconomy. Quantile local projections indicate that business credit booms do not affect the economy’s tail risks either. Yet in line with theory, we find that the economic costs of corporate debt booms rise when inefficient debt restructuring and liquidation impede the resolution of corporate financial distress and make it more likely that corporate zombies creep along.

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  • Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2020-36, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:89172
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-36
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    2. Fattouh, Bassam & Pisicoli, Beniamino & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2024. "Debt and financial fragility: Italian non-financial companies after the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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    4. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Horváth, Bálint & Huizinga, Harry, 2023. "Loan recoveries and the financing of zombie firms over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Martin Kornejew & Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2024. "Bankruptcy Resolution and Credit Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Edward I. Altman & Rui Dai & Wei Wang, 2024. "Global zombie companies: measurements, determinants, and outcomes," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(6), pages 723-744, August.
    7. Hodbod, Alexander & Hommes, Cars & Huber, Stefanie J. & Salle, Isabelle, 2021. "The COVID-19 consumption game-changer: Evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. HONDA Tomohito & ONO Arito & UESUGI Iichiro & YASUDA Yukihiro, 2023. "Anatomy of Out-of-court Debt Workouts for SMEs," Discussion papers 23088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Christian Keuschnigg & Michael Kogler & Johannes Matt, 2022. "Banks, Credit Reallocation, and Creative Destruction," CESifo Working Paper Series 10093, CESifo.
    10. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. João Tovar Jalles & Paulo Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth after Debt Surges," Working Papers REM 2022/0244, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Kin Wai Cheung & Masami Imai, 2023. "Zombie Lending, Labor Hoarding, and Local Industry Growth," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2023-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    14. Nabil Daher, 2024. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters? Evidence from quantile local projections," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 12, Stata Users Group.
    15. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization And Global Crises: Israel And The Rest Of The World," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 19(1), pages 103-134.
    16. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel," NBER Working Papers 28339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Nirupama Kulkarni & S.K. Ritadhi & Sayan Mukherjee, 2021. "Unearthing Zombies," Working Papers 59, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    18. Bruno Albuquerque, 2024. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints, and the investment nexus," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 766-789, August.
    19. Angela De Martiis & Franziska J. Peter, 2023. "When companies don't die: Analyzing zombie firms in a low interest rate environment," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 73(01), pages 67-86, December.
    20. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Bouabdallah, Othman & Domingues Semeano, João & Dorrucci, Ettore & Freier, Maximilian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Modery, Wolfgang & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Valenta, Vilém & Zorell, , 2022. "The economic impact of Next Generation EU: a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 291, European Central Bank.
    21. Yoshibumi Makabe & Yoshihiko Norimasa, 2022. "The Term Structure of Inflation at Risk: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    22. Wang, Yuan & Xing, Chao & Zhang, Luxiu, 2024. "Is greenwashing beneficial for corporate access to financing? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    23. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate debt; business cycles; local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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