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Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy

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With business leverage at record levels, the effects of corporate debt overhang on growth and investment have become a prominent concern. In this paper, we study the effects of corporate debt overhang based on long-run cross-country data covering the near universe modern business cycles. We show that business credit booms typically do not leave a lasting imprint on the macroeconomy. Quantile local projections indicate that business credit booms do not affect the economy’s tail risks either. Yet in line with theory, we find that the economic costs of corporate debt booms rise when inefficient debt restructuring and liquidation impede the resolution of corporate financial distress and make it more likely that corporate zombies creep along.

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  • Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2020-36, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:89172
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-36
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    8. HONDA Tomohito & ONO Arito & UESUGI Iichiro & YASUDA Yukihiro, 2023. "Anatomy of Out-of-court Debt Workouts for SMEs," Discussion papers 23088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    10. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate debt; business cycles; local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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