IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/biw/wpaper/36.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The efficiency analysis of the European CO2 futures market

Author

Listed:
  • Bao-Jun Tang
  • Cheng Shen
  • Chao Gao

Abstract

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the main international carbon trading market, in which European Union CO2 allowances (EUAs) are traded with increasing intensity. In order to help the market participants mitigate the market price risk, one possible way is to analyze the time range of market efficiency and the price discovery mechanism of EUA futures market and spot market. For this purpose, the paper provides the unit root test and the cointegration test for the EUA futures market during 2009-2011. Our result shows that the EUA futures market is efficient within 1 month. Furthermore, it illustrates that the impact of the price will continue for 3 months, examined by a vector error correction model (VECM).

Suggested Citation

  • Bao-Jun Tang & Cheng Shen & Chao Gao, 2012. "The efficiency analysis of the European CO2 futures market," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 36, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:biw:wpaper:36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ceep.bit.edu.cn/docs/2018-10/20181011135603900264.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
    3. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 51-80.
    4. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    5. Alexandre Kossoy & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010," World Bank Publications - Reports 13401, The World Bank Group.
    6. Springer, Urs, 2003. "The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol: a survey of model studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 527-551, September.
    7. Barbara Buchner & Carlo Carraro & A. Denny Ellerman, 2006. "The Allocation of European Union Allowances: Lessons, Unifying Themes and General Principles," Working Papers 0615, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    8. repec:wbk:wboper:13404 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
    10. Haar, Laura N. & Haar, Lawrence, 2006. "Policy-making under uncertainty: Commentary upon the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2615-2629, November.
    11. Karan Capoor & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008," World Bank Publications - Reports 13405, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leme, Marcio Montagnana Vicente & Rocha, Mateus Henrique & Lora, Electo Eduardo Silva & Venturini, Osvaldo José & Lopes, Bruno Marciano & Ferreira, Cláudio Homero, 2014. "Techno-economic analysis and environmental impact assessment of energy recovery from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in Brazil," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-20.
    2. Federico Galán-Valdivieso & Elena Villar-Rubio & María-Dolores Huete-Morales, 2018. "The erratic behaviour of the EU ETS on the path towards consolidation and price stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 689-706, October.
    3. Baruník, Jozef & Malinská, Barbora, 2016. "Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 366-379.
    4. Zhao, Xin-gang & Jiang, Gui-wu & Nie, Dan & Chen, Hao, 2016. "How to improve the market efficiency of carbon trading: A perspective of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1229-1245.
    5. Jian Liu & Ziting Zhang & Lizhao Yan & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH-MIDAS model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Fan, Xinghua & Lv, Xiangxiang & Yin, Jiuli & Tian, Lixin & Liang, Jiaochen, 2019. "Multifractality and market efficiency of carbon emission trading market: Analysis using the multifractal detrended fluctuation technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Zhong, Meirui & Zhang, Rui & Ren, Xiaohang, 2023. "The time-varying effects of liquidity and market efficiency of the European Union carbon market: Evidence from the TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Qiyun Cheng & Huiting Qiao & Yimiao Gu & Zhenxi Chen, 2023. "Price Dynamics and Interactions between the Chinese and European Carbon Emission Trading Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Liu, Xiaojia & An, Haizhong & Wang, Lijun & Jia, Xiaoliang, 2017. "An integrated approach to optimize moving average rules in the EUA futures market based on particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1778-1787.
    10. Zhao, Xin-gang & Wu, Lei & Li, Ang, 2017. "Research on the efficiency of carbon trading market in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-8.
    11. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    12. Bao-jun Tang & Cheng Shen & Yi-fan Zhao, 2015. "Market risk in carbon market: an empirical analysis of the EUA and sCER," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 333-346, February.
    13. Onder Buberkoku, 2017. "Examining Energy Futures Market Efficiency Under Multiple Regime Shifts," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 61-71.
    14. Mu, Yaqian & Evans, Samuel & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "How will sectoral coverage affect the efficiency of an emissions trading system? A CGE-based case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 403-414.
    15. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Li, Hao & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2022. "Is China's carbon trading market efficient? Evidence from emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    16. Liangzheng Wu & Yan Huang & Yimiao Gu, 2023. "Fragmented or Unified? The State of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-11, March.
    17. Yan, Kai & Zhang, Wei & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stylized facts of the carbon emission market in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 555(C).
    18. Rujie Liu & Wei He & Hongwei Dong & Tao Han & Yuting Yang & Hongwei Yu & Zhu Li, 2024. "Application of Dynamic Weight Mixture Model Based on Dual Sliding Windows in Carbon Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-18, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Kai, 2012. "Estimating risk for the carbon market via extreme value theory: An empirical analysis of the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 97-108.
    2. Getachew Nigatu, 2016. "Assessing the effects of climate change policy on the volatility of carbon prices in reference to the Great Recession," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 200-215, July.
    3. Crossland, Jarrod & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) informationally efficient? Evidence from momentum-based trading strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 10-23.
    4. Jia, Jun-Jun & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of verified emissions announcements on the European Union emissions trading scheme: A bilaterally modified dummy variable modelling analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 567-577.
    5. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
    6. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "The goodness-of-fit of the fuel-switching price using the mean-reverting Lévy jump process," Working Papers 2014-285, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Marcel Gorenflo, 2013. "Futures price dynamics of CO 2 emission allowances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1025-1047, December.
    8. John Hua Fan & Eduardo Roca & Alexandr Akimov, 2014. "Estimation and performance evaluation of optimal hedge ratios in the carbon market of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 73-91, February.
    9. Nicolas Koch, 2014. "Dynamic linkages among carbon, energy and financial markets: a smooth transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 715-729, March.
    10. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "Links between spot and futures allowances: ECX and EEX markets comparison," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 101-131.
    11. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-156.
    12. Yan, Kai & Zhang, Wei & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stylized facts of the carbon emission market in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 555(C).
    13. Emilie Alberola & Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yue-Jun Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the 'value at risk' of EUA futures prices based on the extreme value theory," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 145-157.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4223 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    17. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Carbon trading: past, present and future," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 21, pages 471-489, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Rickels, Wilfried & Görlich, Dennis & Oberst, Gerrit & Peterson, Sonja, 2012. "Carbon price dynamics: Evidence from Phase II of the European Emission Trading Scheme," Kiel Working Papers 1804, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Bangzhu Zhu & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Carbon Price Analysis Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 195-206, February.
    20. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    21. Claudia Kettner-Marx & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Angela Köppl, 2012. "The EU Emission Trading Scheme. National Allocation Patterns and Trading Flows," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 44139, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market Efficiency; Cointegration; Vector Error Correction Model; European carbon futures market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:biw:wpaper:36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zhi-Fu Mi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebitcn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.