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The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Emilie Alberola
  • Julien Chevallier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Benoît Chèze

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article critically examines the impact of industrial production for sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on emissions allowance spot prices during Phase I (2005-2007). Using sector production indices and CO2 emissions compliance positions defined by a ratio of allowance allocation relative to baseline emissions, we show that the effect of industrial activity on EU carbon price changes shall be analysed in conjunction with production peaks and compliance net short/long positions at the sector level. The results extend previous literature by showing that carbon price changes react not only to energy prices forecast errors and extreme temperatures events, but also to industrial production in three sectors covered by the EU ETS: combustion, paper and iron.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoît Chèze, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," Working Papers hal-04140795, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04140795
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04140795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Nader Trabelsi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2023. "CO2 Emission Allowances Risk Prediction with GAS and GARCH Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 775-805, February.

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