IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/teepxx/v5y2016i2p200-215.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the effects of climate change policy on the volatility of carbon prices in reference to the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Getachew Nigatu

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of having or not having a climate change policy on the behaviour of carbon price volatility before, within and after the 2008/09 global recession. Our Markov-regime switching model analysis shows that the voluntary carbon market at the Chicago Climate Exchange was in a high-volatile regime within, and two years before, this recession. The mandatory carbon market in the European Climate Exchange was relatively in stable and low-volatile regime over these periods, except at the end of the recession. The voluntary market exhibited more price volatility features than the mandatory one. After the recession, both markets experienced high probabilities of being at low-volatile regimes. Our results suggest that high-volatile regimes were not caused by the recession per se. However, statistical tests show that there were distinct low-and high-volatile regimes during the recession period, indicating that the recession aggravated price volatility of both markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Getachew Nigatu, 2016. "Assessing the effects of climate change policy on the volatility of carbon prices in reference to the Great Recession," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 200-215, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:teepxx:v:5:y:2016:i:2:p:200-215
    DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2015.1075906
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/21606544.2015.1075906
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/21606544.2015.1075906?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6969 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ma, Shujiao & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yiming, 2014. "Modelling the dynamics of European carbon futures price: A Zipf analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 372-380.
    4. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    5. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    6. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
    7. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
    8. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Zou, Le-Le & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 590-598, March.
    9. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
    10. Franc Klaassen, 2002. "Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 363-394.
    11. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
    12. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
    13. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
    14. Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Variance risk-premia in CO2 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 598-605.
    15. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4221 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11713 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
    21. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    22. Brian D. Wright, 2011. "The Economics of Grain Price Volatility," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 32-58.
    23. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    24. Cai, Jun, 1994. "A Markov Model of Switching-Regime ARCH," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 309-316, July.
    25. Montagnoli, Alberto & de Vries, Frans P., 2010. "Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1331-1336, November.
    26. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-050 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Benschopa, Thijs & López Cabreraa, Brenda, 2014. "Volatility modelling of CO2 emission allowance spot prices with regime-switching GARCH models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-050, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2014. "What explain the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 122-135.
    5. Huang, Yumeng & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2021. "A hybrid model for carbon price forecastingusing GARCH and long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2018. "Flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with European allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 504-518.
    7. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Bangzhu Zhu & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Carbon Price Analysis Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 195-206, February.
    9. Federico Galán-Valdivieso & Elena Villar-Rubio & María-Dolores Huete-Morales, 2018. "The erratic behaviour of the EU ETS on the path towards consolidation and price stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 689-706, October.
    10. Fang, Sheng & Lu, Xinsheng & Li, Jianfeng & Qu, Ling, 2018. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of carbon emission allowance and stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 551-566.
    11. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
    12. Crossland, Jarrod & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) informationally efficient? Evidence from momentum-based trading strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 10-23.
    13. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    14. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    15. Jia, Jun-Jun & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of verified emissions announcements on the European Union emissions trading scheme: A bilaterally modified dummy variable modelling analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 567-577.
    16. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    17. Cummins, Mark, 2013. "EU ETS market interactions: The case for multiple hypothesis testing approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 701-709.
    18. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    19. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    20. Philip, Dennis & Shi, Yukun, 2016. "Optimal hedging in carbon emission markets using Markov regime switching models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-15.
    21. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2022. "Forecasting European carbon returns using dimension reduction techniques: Commodity versus financial fundamentals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 944-969.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:teepxx:v:5:y:2016:i:2:p:200-215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/teep20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.