IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/10070.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Galí, Jordi
  • Gambetti, Luca

Abstract

We estimate the response of stock prices to exogenous monetary policy shocks using a vector-autoregressive model with time-varying parameters. Our evidence points to protracted episodes in which stock prices end up increasing persistently in response to an exogenous tightening of monetary policy, even though they experience a small decline in the short run. That response is clearly at odds with the "conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy on bubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also argue that it is unlikely that such evidence be accounted for by an endogenous response of the equity premium to the monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Galí, Jordi & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10070
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP10070
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    4. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
    5. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    6. Jordi Galí, 2011. "Monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles," Economics Working Papers 1293, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2013.
    7. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    8. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
    9. Francesco Furlanetto, 2011. "Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 91-111, September.
    10. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    11. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    13. Fuhrer, Jeff & Tootell, Geoff, 2008. "Eyes on the prize: How did the fed respond to the stock market?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 796-805, May.
    14. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    15. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    16. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    17. Stefania D'Amico & Mira Farka, 2011. "The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 126-137, January.
    18. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    19. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    3. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    7. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kurov, Alexander & Olson, Eric & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2022. "When does the fed care about stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España.
    12. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    13. Mira Farka, 2022. "The credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound: Evidence from the US equity market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 633-693, September.
    14. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    16. Beckers, Benjamin & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Does monetary policy generate asset price bubbles ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    18. repec:idn:wpaper:wp162021 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Interdependence between monetary policy and asset prices in ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    22. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2geqol5jud8hgonsak4roj21gh is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," EconStor Preprints 204579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    24. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Furlanetto & Francesca Loria, 2023. "Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1314-1324, September.
    25. Chauvet, Marcelle & Jiang, Cheng, 2023. "Nonlinear relationship between monetary policy and stock returns: Evidence from the U.S," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    26. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leaning against the wind policies; Financial stability; Inflation targeting; Asset price booms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.