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Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis

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Abstract

Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.

Suggested Citation

  • François Gourio & Todd Messer & Michael Siemer, 2016. "Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis," Working Paper Series WP-2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2016-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    2. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    3. Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2012. "Slow convergence in economies with firm heterogeneity," Working Papers 696, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegul Sahin & Fatih Karahan, 2015. "Understanding the 30 year Decline in Business Dynamism: a General Equilibrium Approach," 2015 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Michael Siemer, 2014. "Firm Entry and Employment Dynamics in the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Firms entry; firm dynamics; Gross Domestic Product; macroeconomics; productivity; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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