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Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits

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  • Anthony Savagar

    (University of Kent)

Abstract

I show that sluggish variation in firm entry over the business cycle can account for significant variation in measured TFP through profit and markup channels. I develop a model of dynamic firm entry, oligopolistic competition and returns to scale in order to decompose TFP fluctuations into technical change, economic profit and markup fluctuations. I show that economic profits cause short-run upward bias in measured TFP, but this subsides to upward bias from endogenous markups as firm entry adjusts. I analyze dynamics analytically through a nonparametric DGE model that allows for a perfect com-petition equilibrium such that there are no biases in measured TFP. Given market power, simulations show that measured TFP is 40%higher than technology in the short-run, due solely to profits, and 20% higher in the long-run due solely to markups. The speed of firm adjustment (‘business dynamism’) will determine importance of each bias.

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  • Anthony Savagar, 2019. "Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits," 2019 Meeting Papers 819, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:819
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    Cited by:

    1. Etro, Federico, 2020. "Technological Foundations for Dynamic Models with Endogenous Entry," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Savagar, Anthony & Dixon, Huw, 2020. "Firm entry, excess capacity and endogenous productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Etro, Federico, 2019. "The Romer model with monopolistic competition and general technologies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-6.
    4. Federico Etro, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Endogenous Markups and Optimal Taxation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 378-406, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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