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Forecasting inflation in France

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  • Célérier, C.

Abstract

The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem projection exercises, the projections are conditional to specific assumptions and must be consistent with the Macroeconomic projection exercise of the Banque de France. The specification of the model is thus highly constrained. The theoretical foundations of the model are based on the markup model for prices, but the resulting empirical model also has elements relating to the purchasing power parity and the Phillips curve. The model aggregates forecasts of the main HICP subcomponents. We show that the model exhibits better performance than a standard AR(4) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Célérier, C., 2009. "Forecasting inflation in France," Working papers 262, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:262
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris I. Alekhin, 2023. "Interregional Differences in Inflation through the Prism of Ackley’s Theory," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 8-25, February.
    2. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," Papers 1311.1097, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation ; Out-of-sample forecast ; Economic modelling.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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