IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/temest/045.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinantes del riesgo de crédito comercial en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Angela González Arbeláez

Abstract

En este trabajo se estima la probabilidad de incumplimiento de las empresas, sus determinantes y el nivel de riesgo crediticio corporativo agregado del sistema financiero. Se utiliza un modelo logit ordenado generalizado con variables explicativas que contienen información a nivel de firmas y variables macroeconómicas que no han sido utilizadas en otros trabajos para Colombia, de tal manera que se puedan capturar los efectos que tiene la dinámica de la economía sobre la probabilidad de default, diferenciando por las categorías de riesgo asociadas a los créditos corporativos. Los resultados muestran que el conjunto de variables macroeconómicas mejora el poder explicativo del modelo, a la vez que se encuentra una alta persistencia en las categorías asociadas con mayor riesgo crediticio.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela González Arbeláez, 2010. "Determinantes del riesgo de crédito comercial en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 045, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:045
    DOI: 10.32468/tef.45
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/tef.45
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/tef.45?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    2. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    3. Oscar Martínez A., 2003. "Determinantes de fragilidad en las empresas colombianas," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 001, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gómez, 2007. "Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Incumplimiento de las Empresas Colombianas," Borradores de Economia 4292, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Jose Eduardo Gómez & Paola Morales Acevedo & Fernando Pineda & Nancy Zamudio, 2007. "An Alternative Methodology for Estimating Credit Quality Transition Matrices," Borradores de Economia 4395, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    7. Oscar Martínez, 2003. "Determinantes De Fragilidad En Las Empresas Colombianas," Borradores de Economia 2300, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Yatchew, Adonis & Griliches, Zvi, 1985. "Specification Error in Probit Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 134-139, February.
    9. Bercedis Peterson & Frank E. Harrell, 1990. "Partial Proportional Odds Models for Ordinal Response Variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 39(2), pages 205-217, June.
    10. Oscar Martínez A., 2003. "Determinantes de Fragilidad en las Empresas Colombianas," Borradores de Economia 259, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Sepúlveda Rivillas & Walter Reina Gutiérrez & Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Betancur, 2012. "Estimación del Riesgo de crédito para empresas del sector real en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10715, Universidad EAFIT.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2010. "Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes," Vniversitas Económica 8291, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    2. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
    3. Luciana Barbosa & Paulo Soares de Pinho, 2017. "Operational cycle and tax liabilities as determinants of corporate credit risk," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201709 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Carlos González-Aguado & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Determinants of corporate default: a BMA approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 511-514, April.
    6. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1071-1099, August.
    7. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    8. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    9. Mitroussi, K. & Abouarghoub, W. & Haider, J.J. & Pettit, S.J. & Tigka, N., 2016. "Performance drivers of shipping loans: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 438-452.
    10. Nijskens, Rob & Mokas, Dimitris, 2019. "Credit Risk in Commercial Real Estate Bank Loans : The Role of Idiosyncratic versus Macro-Economic Factors," Other publications TiSEM ea4f2f0e-dc50-4987-91d3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Jane Haider & Zhirong Ou & Stephen Pettit, 2019. "Predicting corporate failure for listed shipping companies," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(3), pages 415-438, September.
    12. Ilyes Abid & Farid Mkaouar & Olfa Kaabia, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of the forecasting bankruptcy under presence of unobserved heterogeneity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 241-256, March.
    13. Meng, Qingbin & Huang, Haozheng & Li, Xinyu & Wang, Song, 2023. "Short-selling and corporate default risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 398-417.
    14. Wu, Dexiang & Cheng, Huihui & Luo, Cuicui & Han, Liyan, 2022. "Does government initiated corporate social responsibility lower the default risk? Evidence from the targeted poverty alleviation campaign in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Mark Clintworth & Dimitrios Lyridis & Evangelos Boulougouris, 2023. "Financial risk assessment in shipping: a holistic machine learning based methodology," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 90-121, March.
    16. Elena Gregova & Katarina Valaskova & Peter Adamko & Milos Tumpach & Jaroslav Jaros, 2020. "Predicting Financial Distress of Slovak Enterprises: Comparison of Selected Traditional and Learning Algorithms Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, May.
    17. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
    18. Daniel Law & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2015. "Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms: A Lost Cause?," IMF Working Papers 2015/140, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Zhang, Xuan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Liu, Ding & Xu, Liao, 2020. "Determinants of corporate default risk in China: The role of financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 87-98.
    20. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
    21. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2019. "Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Riesgo de crédito; probabilidad de incumplimiento; logit ordenado generalizado.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos-Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.