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Determinantes de Fragilidad en las Empresas Colombianas

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  • Oscar Martínez A.

Abstract

Una de las mayores amenazas para toda empresa es caer en un estado de insolvencia. Este tipo de amenaza a la estabilidad financiera de las empresas es relevante no solo para inversionistas y empleados, sino también para prestamistas del sector financiero, auditores y autoridades reguladoras entre otros. Usando técnicas de regresión probit este estudio desarrolla un modelo en el que se identifican las variables relevantes para pronosticar el estrés o fragilidad financiera de las empresas en Colombia en el año 2001. A partir de los estados financieros que 9000 empresas reportaron en el año 2000, el modelo identificó correctamente al 82% de las empresas frágiles y no frágiles. Los resultados confirman la importancia de los indicadores de rentabilidad, endeudamiento y liquidez en la solvencia presentada por las empresas, puntualmente la utilidad antes de impuestos sobre activo, obligaciones financieras sobre activo y disponible sobre activo respectivamente.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Martínez A., 2003. "Determinantes de Fragilidad en las Empresas Colombianas," Borradores de Economia 259, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:259
    DOI: 10.32468/be.259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2010. "Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes," Vniversitas Económica 8291, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    2. Angela González Arbeláez, 2010. "Determinantes del riesgo de crédito comercial en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 045, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fragilidad financiera; modelos probit.;

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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