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Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Incumplimiento de las Empresas Colombianas

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  • Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gómez

Abstract

En este documento se caracteriza el endeudamiento del sector corporativo privado con el sistemafinanciero durante el período 1998-2005, y se hallan los determinantes de la probabilidadde que una empresa colombiana incumpla con el pago las obligaciones que ha contraído coneste. A trav´es de un modelo logit multinomial se encontró que la probabilidad de incumplimientoestá asociada a indicadores financieros como la liquidez, al núumero de entidades con los que lasempresas tienen créditos y a las caracter´ısticas crediticias como los plazos, las garant´ıas y el tipode establecimiento de crédito. Las predicciones muestran que la probabilidad de incumplimientose incrementó durante la crisis de finales de la d´ecada pasada y en el último año se encuentra enniveles históricamente bajos.

Suggested Citation

  • Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gómez, 2007. "Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Incumplimiento de las Empresas Colombianas," Borradores de Economia 4292, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004292
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Angela González Arbeláez, 2010. "Determinantes del riesgo de crédito comercial en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 045, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2010. "Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes," Vniversitas Económica 8291, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Riesgo de crédito; Probabilidad de incumplimiento; Logit multinomial.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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