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Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Incumplimiento de las Empresas Colombianas

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  • Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gómez

Abstract

En este documento se caracteriza el endeudamiento del sector corporativo privado con el sistema financiero durante el período 1998-2005, y se hallan los determinantes de la probabilidad de que una empresa colombiana incumpla con el pago las obligaciones que ha contraído con este. A través de un modelo logit multinomial se encontró que la probabilidad de incumplimiento está asociada a indicadores financieros como la liquidez, al número de entidades con los que las empresas tienen créditos y a las características crediticias como los plazos, las garantías y el tipo de establecimiento de crédito. Las predicciones muestran que la probabilidad de incumplimiento se incrementó durante la crisis de finales de la década pasada y en el último año se encuentra en niveles históricamente bajos.

Suggested Citation

  • Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gómez, 2007. "Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Incumplimiento de las Empresas Colombianas," Borradores de Economia 466, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:466
    DOI: 10.32468/be.466
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    Cited by:

    1. Ángela González Arbeláez, 2010. "Determinantes del riesgo del crédito comercial en Colombia," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-69, February.
    2. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2010. "Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-40, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Riesgo de crédito; Probabilidad de incumplimiento; Logit multinomial.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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