IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/453.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Carlos Esteban Posada
  • Andrés Felipe García

Abstract

Se estima una NAIRU que cambia en el tiempo de acuerdo con la composición de la fuerza laboral. Bajo este enfoque la NAIRU promedio para el período 1984- 2005 es 11,9%. Además, dada la existencia de metas de inflación, estimamos una curva de Phillips ampliada con una regla de formación de expectativas de inflación que tiene en cuenta tales metas. Esta estimación permitió calcular la "tasa de desempleo compatible con una inflación igual a la meta" (TADECIM) la cual también es cambiante en el tiempo. Su nivel promedio es 15% para el período 1911-2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)," Borradores de Economia 453, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:453
    DOI: 10.32468/be.453
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.453
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.453?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jairo Núnez M. & Raquel Bernal S., 1997. "El desempleo en Colombia: tasa natural, desempleo cíclico y estructural y la duración del desempleo, (1976-1998)," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 16(32), pages 7-74, December.
    2. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación estructural y análisis de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 64-117, Junio.
    4. Arango Luis Eduardo & Andrés Felipe Garcia & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2008. "La metodología de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares y el empalme de las series del mercado laboral urbano de Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, May.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3085, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    8. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    9. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    10. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 53-69.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2010. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela: Some Results and Challenges," Working Papers Series 212, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Fabio Sánchez & Valentina Duque & Mauricio Ruíz, 2009. "Costos laborales y no laborales y su impacto sobre el desempleo, la duración del desempleo y la informalidad en Colombia, 1980-2007," Documentos CEDE 5540, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    4. Antonella Palumbo, 2008. "I metodi di stima del PIL potenziale tra fondamenti di Teoria economica e Contenuto empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    5. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2020. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2431-2464, May.
    6. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q III), pages 5-42.
    7. Backhouse, Roger E. & Forder, James & Laskaridis, Christina, 2023. "The natural rate of unemployment and the NAIRU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Jorge E. Restrepo L., 2008. "Estimating the NAIRU for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 31-46, August.
    9. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    10. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    11. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
    12. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2010. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela: Some Results and Challenges," Working Papers Series 212, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Volker Wieland, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Predrag Trpeski & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "Nairu Estimates In Transitional Economy With Extremely High Unemployment Rate: The Case Of Republic Of Macedonia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 167-186, July - Se.
    16. Murphy, Kevin J. & Payne, James E., 2003. "Explaining change in the natural rate of unemployment: A regional approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 345-368.
    17. T. D. Stanley, 2004. "Does unemployment hysteresis falsify the natural rate hypothesis? a meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 589-612, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuerza laboral; inflación; meta de inflación; curva de Phillips; NAIRU; TADECIM.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.