IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/397.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge E. Restrepo
  • Hernán Rincón

Abstract

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a pesofor- peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to the government's net tax revenues, providing a good notion of the incidence of fiscal policy shocks in both countries. When public finances are under control, as they are in Chile, fiscal policy seems to be more effective than when they lack stability and credibility, as seems to be the case of Colombia since the mid nineties.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia," Borradores de Economia 397, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:397
    DOI: 10.32468/be.397
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.397
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.397?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    3. Perotti, Roberto, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 168, European Central Bank.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    7. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, 2004. "La Política Fiscal en el Siglo XX en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 318, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    9. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    11. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    12. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    13. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Tokman R., Marcelo & Valdés, Rodrigo O. & Benavides, Paula & Marcel, Mario, 2003. "Structural budget balance: methodology and estimation for the Chilean central government 1987-2001," Seminarios y Conferencias 6573, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    17. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    19. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    20. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1997. "Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1781-1816, December.
    21. Rodrigo Cerda & Luis Felipe Lagos & Hermann González, 2005. "Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 63-77.
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo, 2007. "The Case for a Countercyclical Rule-based Fiscal Regime," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv183, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    2. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    4. Faguet, Jean-Paul & Shami, Mahvish, 2008. "Fiscal policy and spatial inequality in Latin America and beyond," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 27162, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodríguez & Jorge Toro & Santiago Téllez, 2017. "FISCO: modelo fiscal para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(83), pages 161-187, June.
    6. Alexander Meléndez Holguín & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-516, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    7. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey?," EconStor Preprints 162763, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Jorge Puig, 2014. "Multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 60, pages 188-210, January-D.
    9. Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia 5406, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
    11. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460510, HAL.
    12. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal App," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo, 2007. "How Effective is Government Spending in a Small Open Economy with Distortionary Taxes," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv188, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    14. Ignacio Lozano Espitia & Karen Rodríguez, 2009. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal," Borradores de Economia 5386, Banco de la Republica.
    15. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Política Fiscal en Ecuador 1993-2009 [Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009]," MPRA Paper 34436, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.
    16. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Ponomarenko, Alexey A. & Vlasov, Sergey A., 2010. "Russian fiscal policy during the financial crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2010_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Vlasov, S. & Ponomarenko, A., 2010. "The Role of Budget Policy under the Financial and Economic Crisis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 7, pages 111-133.
    23. Restrepo-Ángel, Sergio & Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Ospina-Tejeiro, Juan J., 2022. "Multipliers of taxes and public spending in Colombia: SVAR and local projections approaches," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    2. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    3. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/375, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. K. Peren Arin & Peter H. Helles & Murat Koyuncu & Otto F. M. Reich, 2016. "Should We Care About The Composition Of Tax-Based Stimulus Packages?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 430-445, July.
    5. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Ciferri, Davide & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and real exchange rate dynamics: Some evidence for Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 709-723, September.
    8. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève, 2012. "Sur les causes et les effets en macro économie : les Contributions de Sargent et Sims, Prix Nobel d'Economie 2011," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(3), pages 335-364.
    9. Patrick Fève, 2005. "Voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 147-179.
    10. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    11. Slimani, Slah, 2017. "Chocs budgétaires et dynamique économique en Tunisie sous une approche de type VAR Structurel [Budgetary shocks and economic dynamics in Tunisia under a structural VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 81573, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Miyao, Ryuzo, 2000. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 366-384, December.
    13. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    14. Dragan Tevdovski & Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2138-2160, January.
    15. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    16. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    17. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    18. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
    19. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    20. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Identification; Fiscal Policy; SVAR; SVEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.