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Consumer Debt Moratoria

Author

Listed:
  • Bulent Guler
  • Yasin Kürsat Önder
  • Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas
  • Jose Villegas

Abstract

We evaluate the effectiveness of consumer debt moratoria, one of the earliest policy interventions aimed at alleviating debt burdens. Using administrative data from Colombia, our study compares households that narrowly qualified for the moratorium (eligible up to 60 days overdue on their mortgages) against those who narrowly missed eligibility. Our analysis indicates that the moratorium policy boosts consumption among financially strained households while reducing delinquency rates on mortgages and other loans. We then develop a life-cycle incomplete market model, incorporating households subject to idiosyncratic income shocks, to examine both the general equilibrium and longrun effects of the policy. Our model shows that the policy increases aggregate output, consumption, and welfare for both households and bank owners. The policy also facilitates financial stability by attenuating the decline in house prices and increasing aggregate housing demand. Finally, we use our model to explore potential outcomes of debt forgiveness. **** RESUMEN: Evaluamos la efectividad de las políticas de los periodos de gracia (moratoria de deuda) de los hogares. Utilizando datos de registro de crédito (Formato 341) de Colombia, nuestro estudio compara los créditos que por poco eran elegibles para participar en el programa de moratoria (hasta 60 días de mora en sus créditos hipotecarios) contra aquellos que no alcanzaron a ser elegibles. Nuestro análisis indica que la política impulsa el consumo, al tiempo que reduce las tasas de morosidad, tanto en créditos hipotecarios como en otras modalidades. Para complementar el análisis, desarrollamos un modelo de ciclo de vida con mercados incompletos, incorporando hogares sujetos a choques idiosincráticos de ingresos, para examinar tanto el equilibrio general como los efectos a largo plazo de la política. Nuestro modelo muestra que la política aumenta la producción agregada, el consumo y el bienestar tanto de los hogares como de los bancos. La política también facilita la estabilidad financiera al atenuar la caída en los precios de las viviendas y aumentar su demanda.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulent Guler & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Jose Villegas, 2024. "Consumer Debt Moratoria," Borradores de Economia 1276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1276
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1276
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zame, William R, 1993. "Efficiency and the Role of Default When Security Markets Are Incomplete," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1142-1164, December.
    2. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    3. Daniel Greenwald & Adam Guren, 2019. "Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?," 2019 Meeting Papers 1334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Fatih Guvenen & Anthony A. Smith, 2014. "Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance From Economic Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2085-2129, November.
    5. Ian Domowitz & Elie Tamer, "undated". "Two Hundred Years of Bankruptcy: A Tale of Legislation and Economic Fluctuations," IPR working papers 97-25, Institute for Policy Resarch at Northwestern University.
    6. Yasin Kür¸sat Önder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Jose Villegas, 2023. "Debt Moratorium: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 1253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Matias D. Cattaneo & Nicolas Idrobo & Rocio Titiunik, 2019. "A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations," Papers 1911.09511, arXiv.org.
    8. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt moratoria; regression discontinuity design; heterogeneous agent models; moratoria de deuda; diseño de regresión discontinua; modelos de agentes heterogéneos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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