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Incumbency Advantage at Municipal Elections in Italy: A Quasi-Experimental Approach

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  • Marco Alberto De Benedetto

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

We analyze the incumbency effect on a candidate’s electoral prospects using a large data set on Italian municipal elections held from 1993 to 2011. We apply a non-parametric Sharp Regression Discontinuity Design that compares candidates who barely win an election to those who barely lose, exploiting the fact that incumbency status changes discontinuously at the threshold of margin of victory of zero. We find that incumbents are more likely to win the competition compared to their challengers at the Italian municipal elections. The results are robust to different specifications and estimation strategies with excellent balance in observable characteristics. Also, the effect of interest seems to be larger in magnitude for municipalities located in the North of Italy compared to southern municipalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Alberto De Benedetto, 2014. "Incumbency Advantage at Municipal Elections in Italy: A Quasi-Experimental Approach," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1408, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1408
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    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/15287
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Caselli & Paolo Falco, 2019. "Your Vote is (no) Secret! How Low Voter Density Harms Voter Anonymity and Biases Elections in Italy," EconPol Working Paper 26, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Caselli, Mauro & Falco, Paolo, 2022. "Your vote is (no) secret! How low voter density hurts anonymity and biases elections in Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incumbency Status; Political Participation; Sharp RDD.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets

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