IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v36y2016icp579-590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ho, Sy Hoa

Abstract

In this paper, we study the long and short-runs determinants of sovereign CDS spread for eight emerging countries from 2008.Q4 to 2013.Q2. We estimate the spread of sovereign CDS using three macroeconomic determinants: current account, external debt and international reserves. Using the Pooled Mean Group cointegration approach, our findings can be summarized as follows: i, the existence of cointegration between the variables indicated above; ii, the coefficients of the current account, the external debt and international reserves are highly significant to explain the long-run sovereign CDS spread for all countries; iii, international reserves are more important than the current account in order to reduce the sovereign CDS spread in long-run; iv, when allowing for heterogeneous short-run dynamics, the short-run effects are not significant for all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ho, Sy Hoa, 2016. "Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 579-590.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:579-590
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.07.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531915300039
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.07.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February.
    2. Manuel Ramos-Francia & José G Rangel, 2012. "Revisiting the effects of country specific fundamentals on sovereign default risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3008-3016.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    5. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2016. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 151-177, May.
    7. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
    8. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377.
    11. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2006/104, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    13. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2012. "Pooled Mean Group estimation on international capital mobility in African countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 7-17.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. A. Georgievska & L. Georgievska & A. Stojanovic & N. Todorovic, 2008. "Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1031-1051.
    16. Chaibi, Hasna & Ftiti, Zied, 2015. "Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-16.
    17. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2003. "Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/106, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    19. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Bengochea-Morancho, Aurelia, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve for CO2," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 121-126, January.
    21. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    2. Cepni, Oguzhan & Kucuksarac, Doruk & Yilmaz, M. Hasan, 2017. "The sensitivity of credit default swap premium to global risk factor: Evidence from emerging markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 74-77.
    3. Mehmet Selman Colak & Sumeyra Korkmaz & Huseyin Ozturk & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2024. "It Is Not Your Risk but It Is Your Problem: A Spatial Analysis of Emerging Market Credit Default Swap Premia," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2406, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Roudari, Soheil & Salmani, Yunes, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Debt to Banks in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(4), pages 403-422, October.
    5. Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & Y. Gülnur Muradoğlu & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "Spillovers from one country’s sovereign debt to CDS (credit default swap) spreads of others during the European crisis: a spatial approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 277-296, July.
    6. Hazar Altınbaş & Vincenzo Pacelli & Edgardo Sica, 2022. "An Empirical Assessment of the Contagion Determinants in the Euro Area in a Period of Sovereign Debt Risk," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 339-371, July.
    7. Keddad, Benjamin & Schalck, Christophe, 2020. "Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 356-375.
    8. M'beirick, Abdallahi & Haddou, Samira, 2024. "The asymmetric response of sovereign credit default swaps spreads to risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 244-272.
    9. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Cross-Country Linkages and Asymmetries of Sovereign Risk Pluralistic Investigation of CDS Spreads," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-10, October.
    10. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    11. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    12. Sun, Xiaolei & Wang, Jun & Yao, Yanzhen & Li, Jingyu & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Spillovers among sovereign CDS, stock and commodity markets: A correlation network perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2013. "Do Migrant Remittances Complement Domestic Investment? New Evidence from Panel Cointegration," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1308, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2017. "Is There an Investment Motive Behind Remittances? Evidence From Panel Cointegration," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 63-82, January-M.
    3. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Hsu, Chia-Sheng & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2016. "Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 420-431.
    4. Al Mamun, Md. & Sohag, Kazi & Hannan Mia, Md. Abdul & Salah Uddin, Gazi & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Regional differences in the dynamic linkage between CO2 emissions, sectoral output and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Huaping Sun & Love Enna & Augustine Monney & Dang Khoa Tran & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "The Long-Run Effects of Trade Openness on Carbon Emissions in Sub-Saharan African Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Caravaggio, Nicola, 2020. "A global empirical re-assessment of the Environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Jose Eduardo de A. Ferreira, 2006. "Effects of Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate: A Panel Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised and Emerging Economies," Studies in Economics 0603, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    9. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    10. Francisco García-Lillo & Eduardo Sánchez-García & Bartolomé Marco-Lajara & Pedro Seva-Larrosa, 2023. "Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development: A Bibliometric Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 13/005, African Governance and Development Institute..
    12. Ramesh Chandra Das & Tonmoy Chatterjee & Enrico Ivaldi, 2022. "Nexus between Housing Price and Magnitude of Pollution: Evidence from the Panel of Some High- and-Low Polluting Cities of the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Income inequality and health: Evidence from developed and developing countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-56.
    14. Thian-Hee Yiew & Chin-Yu Lee & Lin-Sea Lau, 2021. "Economic growth in selected G20 countries: How do different pollution emissions matter?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11451-11474, August.
    15. Jeetendra Khadan & Amrita Deonarine, 2019. "Testing the Inter-temporal Budget Constraint for Small States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1176-1183.
    16. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    17. M. Agovino, 2014. "What are the main explanations of occupational diseases and accidents at work in the agricultural sector? A panel analysis for Italian regional data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 1045-1073, March.
    18. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Khang Yi Sim & Siok Kun Sek, 2024. "Unveiling the asymmetric energy-growth nexus in top oil-importing and exporting countries: The common correlated effects approach," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(2), pages 539-568, March.
    20. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:579-590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.