IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v37y2013i8p3169-3180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR

Author

Listed:
  • Girardi, Giulio
  • Tolga Ergün, A.

Abstract

We modify Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2011) CoVaR, the VaR of the financial system conditional on an institution being in financial distress. We change the definition of financial distress from an institution being exactly at its VaR to being at most at its VaR. This change allows us to consider more severe distress events, to backtest CoVaR, and to improve its consistency (monotonicity) with respect to the dependence parameter. We define the systemic risk contribution of an institution as the change from its CoVaR in its benchmark state (defined as a one-standard deviation event) to its CoVaR under financial distress. We estimate the systemic risk contributions of four financial industry groups consisting of a large number of institutions for the sample period June 2000 to February 2008 and the 12months prior to the beginning of the crisis. We also investigate the link between institutions’ contributions to systemic risk and their characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:3169-3180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613001155
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    4. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    6. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    8. Bauwens, Luc & Laurent, Sebastien, 2005. "A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, With Application to Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 346-354, July.
    9. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    10. Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Inefficient Credit Booms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
    11. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
    12. Chen Zhou, 2010. "Are Banks Too Big to Fail? Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 205-250, December.
    13. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    16. Georg Mainik & Eric Schaanning, 2012. "On dependence consistency of CoVaR and some other systemic risk measures," Papers 1207.3464, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    17. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "A vine-copula conditional value-at-risk approach to systemic sovereign debt risk for the financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 98-123.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Systemic risk in European sovereign debt markets: A CoVaR-copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 214-244.
    4. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Markus Brunnermeier & Simon Rother & Isabel Schnabel & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(9), pages 4272-4317.
    6. Segoviano, Miguel & Espinoza, Raphael, 2017. "Consistent measures of systemic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118947, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
    8. Qin, Xiao & Zhou, Chen, 2021. "Systemic risk allocation using the asymptotic marginal expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Moore, Kyle & Zhou, Chen, 2014. "The determinants of systemic importance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Kamila Sommer, 2014. "Fertility Choice in a Life Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Uninsurable Earnings Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Idier, Julien & Lamé, Gildas & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2014. "How useful is the Marginal Expected Shortfall for the measurement of systemic exposure? A practical assessment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 134-146.
    12. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2012. "Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: A global CoVaR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3150-3162.
    13. Gang-Jin Wang & Chi Xie & Kaijian He & H. Eugene Stanley, 2017. "Extreme risk spillover network: application to financial institutions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 1417-1433, September.
    14. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2014. "Assessing the contribution of banks, insurance and other financial services to systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-287.
    15. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    16. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    17. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2021. "Leverage and systemic risk pro-cyclicality in the Chinese financial system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Shuting Liu & Qifa Xu & Cuixia Jiang, 2021. "Systemic risk of China’s commercial banks during financial turmoils in 2010-2020: A MIDAS-QR based CoVaR approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(18), pages 1600-1609, October.
    19. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    20. Qi Zhang & Francesco Vallascas & Kevin Keasey & Charlie X. Cai, 2015. "Are Market‐Based Measures of Global Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions Useful to Regulators and Supervisors?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1403-1442, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-Risk; Conditional Value-at-Risk; Systemic Risk; DCC model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:3169-3180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.