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The evolution of the occupational structure in Italy in the last decade

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  • Gaetano Basso

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Many advanced economies have experienced significant job polarization in the last decades, with an increase in the employment share and relative wage of both low-wage and high-wage workers at the expense of middle-wage workers. This polarization has probably been spurred by the substitution of routine-intensive labour with automation and information and communication technologies. This note explores whether the Italian labour market has experienced similar patterns and, if so, whether they are the consequence of a pure technology-driven shock. The evidence is mixed. While the share of low-wage manual occupations has increased markedly, that of high-wage professional occupations has fallen slightly. The share of middle-wage jobs has declined significantly but, unlike the case of the US, the wages have not. Regression analyses based on occupational task characteristics (Goos et al., 2014) do not fully align with the routine-biased technical change hypothesis either, consistently with the limited adoption of automation technology in Italy. Among the most likely factors, cross-sector reallocation, which favoured the low value added service sector, and the rise of low skilled migrant and college graduate labour supply explain most of the observed occupational changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaetano Basso, 2019. "The evolution of the occupational structure in Italy in the last decade," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 478, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_478_19
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    Cited by:

    1. Ignazio Visco, 2019. "Stabilità e sviluppo in un'economia globale (Stability and development in a global economy)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 72(285), pages 3-13.
    2. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    3. Piero Esposito & Sergio Scicchitano, 2023. "Drivers of skill mismatch among Italian graduates: the role of personality traits," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(40), pages 4642-4663, August.
    4. Esposito, Piero & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2022. "Educational mismatch and labour market transitions in Italy: Is there an unemployment trap?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 138-155.
    5. Consolo, Agostino & Cette, Gilbert & Bergeaud, Antonin & Labhard, Vincent & Osbat, Chiara & Kosekova, Stanimira & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Basso, Gaetano & Basso, Henrique & Bobeica, Elena & Ciapanna, Eman, 2021. "Digitalisation: channels, impacts and implications for monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 266, European Central Bank.
    6. Luciana Aimone Gigio, & Silvia Camussi & Vincenzo Maccarrone, 2021. "Changes in the employment structure and in job quality in Italy: a national and regional analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 603, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Jacopo Zotti & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Claudio Socci & Giancarlo Infantino, 2020. "Employment incentives and the disaggregated impact on the economy. The Italian case," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 993-1032, October.
    8. Giangregorio Luca & Fana Marta, 2021. "The structure of the labour market and wage inequality using RIF-OLS: the Italian case," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2021-11, Joint Research Centre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour demand; occupational choice;

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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