IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedder/y1999iqiiip2-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What credit market indicators tell us

Author

Listed:
  • John V. Duca

Abstract

John Duca shows that interest rate spreads and loan surveys should be interpreted carefully when assessing the availability of credit and its impact on the economy. This is especially true of interest rate spread indicators, some of which reflect prepayment, liquidity, or default risk premiums that have different economic implications. It can be helpful to decompose spreads before drawing economic inferences from the structure of interest rates. Spreads between yields on non-top-grade private-sector bonds and Treasury bonds, in particular, have a large prepayment premium in addition to a time-varying default risk premium. It is also important to recognize that even some decomposed spreads include more than one type of risk premium. In this regard, a widening of some yield spreads that contain a small default risk component, such as the Aaa-Treasury spread, could reflect a rise in prepayment or liquidity risk premiums, whose magnitudes may be hard to identify separately.

Suggested Citation

  • John V. Duca, 1999. "What credit market indicators tell us," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 2-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1999:i:qiii:p:2-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/efr/1999/efr9903a.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John V. Duca, 1995. "Credit availability, bank consumer lending, and consumer durables," Working Papers 9514, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan McCarthy, 1997. "Debt, delinquencies, and consumer spending," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Feb).
    2. Victor E. Li, 1998. "Household credit and the monetary transmission mechanism," Working Papers 1998-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    4. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine & Duca, John V & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bell, Venetia & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "The Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey," Bank of England working papers 515, Bank of England.
    6. Duca, John V., 1998. "Assessing Monetary Policy and Deposit Deregulation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-21, January.
    7. Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere, 2016. "The impact of monetary policy on household consumption in South Africa. Evidence from Vector Autoregressive Techniques," Working Papers 598, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    8. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2001. "New York - New Jersey job expansion to moderate in 2001," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 7(Mar).
    9. Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Credit;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1999:i:qiii:p:2-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.