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The EUA-sCER Spread: Compliance Strategies and Arbitrage in the European Carbon Market

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Mansanet-Bataller

    (Mission Climat Caisse des Dépôts - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Morgan Hervé-Mignucci

    (Mission Climat Caisse des Dépôts - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Emilie Alberola

    (Mission Climat Caisse des Dépôts - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

This article studies the price relationships between EU emissions allowances (EUAs) – valid under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) – and secondary Certified Emissions Reductions (sCERs) – established from primary CERs generated through the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Given the price differences between EUAs and sCERs, financial and industrial operators may benefit from arbitrage strategies by buying sCERs and selling EUAs (i.e. selling the EUA-sCER spread) to cover their compliance position between these two assets, as industrial operators are allowed to use sCERs towards compliance with their emissions cap within the European system up to 13.4%. Our central results show that the spread is mainly driven by EUA prices and market microstructure variables and less importantly, as we would expect, by emissions-related fundamental drivers. This might be justified by the fact that the EU ETS remains the greatest source of CER demand to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Julien Chevallier & Morgan Hervé-Mignucci & Emilie Alberola, 2010. "The EUA-sCER Spread: Compliance Strategies and Arbitrage in the European Carbon Market," Post-Print halshs-00458991, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00458991
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00458991
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Qin, Haotong & Wei, Yigang & Chevallier, Julien, 2022. "Convolutional neural network forecasting of European Union allowances futures using a novel unconstrained transformation method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Lyu, Chenyan & Scholtens, Bert, 2024. "Integration of the international carbon market: A time-varying analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Gary Koop & Lise Tole, 2013. "Forecasting the European carbon market," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 723-741, June.
    4. Vasa, Alexander & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2011. "The Role of CDM Post-2012," EconStor Research Reports 65871, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "Identifying price bubbles in global carbon markets: Evidence from the SADF test, GSADF test and LPPLS method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    7. Johann Wackerbauer & Jutta Albrecht-Saavedra & Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Jana Lippelt & Johannes Pfeiffer & Luise Röpke & Markus Zimmer, 2011. "Bewertung der klimapolitischen Maßnahmen und Instrumente: eine Studie im Auftrag der E.ON AG," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 51, July.
    8. Igor Shishlov & Valentin Bellassen, 2012. "10 lessons from 10 years of the CDM," Working Papers hal-01151437, HAL.

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    Keywords

    EUA-sCER Spread; Arbitrage; Emissions Markets;
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