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Explaining Unemployment Duration in Australia

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  • Nick Carroll

Abstract

What influences the probability that someone will leave unemployment? Informed by a search-theoretic framework and allowing for exits to not in the labour force and employment, I examine what influences the probability that somebody will leave unemployment. The unemployment data used are derived from the retrospective work history information from the first two waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. I find that variables that increase wage offers and lower reservation wages are associated with shorter durations of unemployment and that exit rates from unemployment appear to remain steady initially with duration before declining relatively sharply.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Carroll, 2004. "Explaining Unemployment Duration in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 483, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:483
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/CEPR/DP483.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Deborah A. Cobb‐Clark & Lihini De Silva, 2021. "Participation, Unemployment, and Wages," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(4), pages 482-493, December.
    3. Hock-Eam Lim Author_Email: lheam@uum.edu.my, 2011. "The Determinants Of Individual Unemployment Duration: The Case Of Malaysian Graduates," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-510, Conference Master Resources.
    4. Hock-Eam Lim, 2011. "The Determinants Of Individual Unemployment Duration: The Case Of Malaysian Graduates," Journal of Global Management, Global Research Agency, vol. 2(2), pages 184-203, July.
    5. Mark Wooden & Nicole Watson, 2007. "The HILDA Survey and its Contribution to Economic and Social Research (So Far)," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 208-231, June.
    6. Cristian Ionel Rotaru, 2014. "Transitioning Out of Unemployment: Analysis Using the ABS Longitudinal Labour Force Survey File," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 17(2), pages 111-137.
    7. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    8. Anton Samoilenko & Kristie Carter, 2015. "Economic Outcomes of Youth not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. Ian Watson, 2008. "Low Paid Jobs and Unemployment: Churning in the Australian Labour Market, 2001 to 2006," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(1), pages 71-96.
    10. Vikman, Ulrika, 2010. "Does Providing Childcare to Unemployed Affect Unemployment Duration?," Working Paper Series 2010:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Darja Boršič & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "Modeling Unemployment Duration in Slovenia using Cox Regression Models," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 145-156, May.
    12. Jeff Borland & David Johnston, 2010. "How Does a Worker's Labour Market History Affect Job Duration?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2010n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    13. Thorsten Stromback, 2012. "The employment effect of intensive support," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 15(1), pages 57-76.
    14. Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Long-Term Unemployment in the ACT," CEPR Discussion Papers 603, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    15. Matthew Forbes & Andrew Barker, 2017. "Local Labour Markets and Unemployment Duration," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(301), pages 238-254, June.
    16. Jeff Borland, 2020. "Scarring effects: A review of Australian and international literature," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 23(2), pages 173-187.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    survival analysis unemployment durations;

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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