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The Probability of Leaving Unemployment: The Influence of Duration, Destination and Demographics

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  • CLIVE BROOKS
  • PAUL VOLKER

Abstract

This paper examines the influences of a number of demographic characteristics and the duration of unemployment on the probability of leaving unemployment. This probability is found to decrease as the duration of unemployment increases, with married females having the highest probability of exit. Various measures of average completed duration suggest that the longest spells of unemployment are incurred by older males. These appear to be longest for males withdrawing from the labour market. The relationship between the duration of unemployment and the probability of exit is important for labour market policy. Some relevant considerations are also explored in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive Brooks & Paul Volker, 1986. "The Probability of Leaving Unemployment: The Influence of Duration, Destination and Demographics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(3), pages 296-309, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:62:y:1986:i:3:p:296-309
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1986.tb02689.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kooreman, Peter & Ridder, Geert, 1983. "The effects of age and unemployment percentage on the duration of unemployment: Evidence from aggregate data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 41-57, January.
    2. repec:bla:ecorec:v:59:y:1983:i:165:p:132-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
    4. P. K. Trivedi & G. M. Baker, 1983. "Unemployment in Australia: Duration and Recurrent Spells," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(2), pages 132-148, June.
    5. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    6. William Foster, 1981. "Gross Flows in the Australian Labour Market A First Look," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 14(4), pages 57-64, December.
    7. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-1266, September.
    8. A. Hasan & P. Broucker, 1982. "Duration and Concentration of Unemployment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 735-756, November.
    9. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miles Corak, 1991. "Eligibility Rules in the Canadian Jobs Strategy: Shifting the Burden or Targeting the Assistance?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(1), pages 64-76, March.
    2. Tariq Hassan Haque & M Ohidul Haque, 2022. "The Unemployment Imbalance Between Non-English-Speaking Migrant Women and Australian Born Women," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(2), pages 459-478, June.
    3. Anh T. Le & Paul W. Miller, 2000. "Australia's Unemployment Problem," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(232), pages 74-104, March.
    4. Nick Carroll, 2006. "Explaining Unemployment Duration in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 298-314, September.
    5. Prem Thapa, 2004. "On The Risk Of Unemployment: A Comparative Assessment of the Labour Market Success of Migrants in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 473, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    6. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Disaggregated Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Chalmers, J. & Kalb, G., 2000. "Are Casual Jobs a Freeway to Permanent Employment?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Paul W. Miller, 1989. "Low‐Wage Youth Employment: A Permanent or Transitory State?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 65(2), pages 126-135, June.
    9. Cezary A. Kapuscinski & Kyle Thomson, 2014. "Experiment Estimates of Indigenous Employment from Administrative Data," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 17(2), pages 139-161.

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