IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ozl/journl/v17y2014i2p111-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transitioning Out of Unemployment: Analysis Using the ABS Longitudinal Labour Force Survey File

Author

Listed:
  • Cristian Ionel Rotaru

    (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

Abstract

What affects the probability that an individual who has just entered unemployment finds employment within a given timeframe? Does the probability of exiting unemployment depend on the length of the individual’s unemployment spell? This paper reflects on these questions and analyses the transitions from unemployment of those aged 20-65 years, over the 2008-2010 period. The analysis makes use of the ABS Longitudinal Labour Force Survey (LLFS) file – a dataset that includes households that were followed for eight consecutive months during the said period. This paper is the first longitudinal analysis conducted on the file.Building on the job-search theoretical framework, the paper builds a model aimed at analysing the factors that influence transitions from unemployment. A range of methodological techniques are implemented, including the creation of time intervals and the subsequent discrete duration analysis; the adoption of the competing-risks framework, to account for the different forms of exits from unemployment; and the inclusion of random effects in the modelling of the observed as well as unobserved heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristian Ionel Rotaru, 2014. "Transitioning Out of Unemployment: Analysis Using the ABS Longitudinal Labour Force Survey File," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 17(2), pages 111-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:17:y:2014:i:2:p:111-137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ftprepec.drivehq.com/ozl/journl/downloads/AJLE172rotaru.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
    2. Per-Anders Edin & Magnus Gustavsson, 2008. "Time Out of Work and Skill Depreciation," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 61(2), pages 163-180, January.
    3. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
    4. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    5. Nick Carroll, 2006. "Explaining Unemployment Duration in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 298-314, September.
    6. Bengt Muthén & Katherine Masyn, 2005. "Discrete-Time Survival Mixture Analysis," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 30(1), pages 27-58, March.
    7. Jeff Borland & David Johnston, 2010. "How Does a Worker's Labour Market History Affect Job Duration?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2010n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Goldsmith, Arthur H. & Veum, Jonathan R. & William Darity, Jr., 1996. "The impact of labor force history on self-esteem and its component parts, anxiety, alienation and depression," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 183-220, April.
    9. Judith D. Singer & John B. Willett, 1993. "It’s About Time: Using Discrete-Time Survival Analysis to Study Duration and the Timing of Events," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 18(2), pages 155-195, June.
    10. Nick Carroll, 2007. "Unemployment and Psychological Well‐being," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(262), pages 287-302, September.
    11. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-862, December.
    12. Jenny Chalmers & Guyonne Kalb, 2001. "Moving from Unemployment to Permanent Employment: Could a Casual Job Accelerate the Transition?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 34(4), pages 415-436, December.
    13. Amartya Sen, 1997. "Inequality, Unemployment and Contemporary Europe," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 07, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    14. Harry J. Holzer, 1986. "Black Youth Nonemployment: Duration and Job Search," NBER Chapters, in: The Black Youth Employment Crisis, pages 23-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ian Watson, 2008. "Low Paid Jobs and Unemployment: Churning in the Australian Labour Market, 2001 to 2006," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(1), pages 71-96.
    16. Katy Long, 2009. "Unemployment durations: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 3(10), pages 48-54, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Byrne & Martin D. O’Brien, 2017. "Understanding Irish Labour Force Participation," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(1), pages 27-60.
    2. Matthew Forbes & Andrew Barker, 2017. "Local Labour Markets and Unemployment Duration," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(301), pages 238-254, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lixin Cai, 2015. "The dynamics of low pay employment in Australia," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(7), pages 1095-1123, October.
    2. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    3. Jeff Borland & David Johnston, 2010. "How Does a Worker's Labour Market History Affect Job Duration?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2010n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Girum Abebe & A Stefano Caria & Marcel Fafchamps & Paolo Falco & Simon Franklin & Simon Quinn, 2021. "Anonymity or Distance? Job Search and Labour Market Exclusion in a Growing African City [Endogenous Stratification in Randomized Experiments]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(3), pages 1279-1310.
    5. Marianna Kudlyak & Damba Lkhagvasuren & Roman Susuyev, 2012. "Sorting by Skill over the Course of Job Search," Working Papers 12011, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    6. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & Fabian Lange, 2014. "Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 1-21.
    7. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2011. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2873-2898, December.
    8. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Nonparticipation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 7-54.
    9. Moore, Timothy J., 2015. "The employment effects of terminating disability benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 30-43.
    10. Jonas Voßemer, 2019. "The Effects of Unemployment on Non-monetary Job Quality in Europe: The Moderating Role of Economic Situation and Labor Market Policies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 379-401, July.
    11. Murali Kuchibhotla & Peter F. Orazem & Sanjana Ravi, 2020. "The scarring effects of youth joblessness in Sri Lanka," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 269-287, February.
    12. Kassenböhmer, Sonja C. & Haisken-DeNew, John P., 2008. "You're Fired! The Causal Negative Effect of Unemployment on Life Satisfaction," Ruhr Economic Papers 63, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Violante, Giovanni & Hornstein, Andreas, 2006. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Kupets, Olga, 2006. "Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 228-247, June.
    15. Braga, Breno, 2018. "Earnings dynamics: The role of education throughout a worker’s career," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 83-97.
    16. Van Belle, Eva & Caers, Ralf & De Couck, Marijke & Di Stasio, Valentina & Baert, Stijn, 2017. "Why Is Unemployment Duration a Sorting Criterion in Hiring?," IZA Discussion Papers 10876, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Alexander Plum, 2018. "Stochastic Expected Utility for Binary Choice: New Representations," Working Papers 2018-08, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    18. Wulfgramm, Melike, 2012. "Country-specific life satisfaction effects of unemployment: Does labour market policy matter?," Working papers of the ZeS 07/2012, University of Bremen, Centre for Social Policy Research (ZeS).
    19. Hee-Koung Joeng & Ming-Hui Chen & Sangwook Kang, 2016. "Proportional exponentiated link transformed hazards (ELTH) models for discrete time survival data with application," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 38-62, January.
    20. George Neumann, 1996. "Search Models and Duration Data," Econometrics 9602008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 1996.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Hazard Rate; Survival Analysis; Longitudinal Labour Force Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:17:y:2014:i:2:p:111-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sandie Rawnsley (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/becurau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.