IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2409.13528.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Comparison between Financial and Gambling Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Haoyu Liu
  • Carl Donovan
  • Valentin Popov

Abstract

Financial and gambling markets are ostensibly similar and hence strategies from one could potentially be applied to the other. Financial markets have been extensively studied, resulting in numerous theorems and models, while gambling markets have received comparatively less attention and remain relatively undocumented. This study conducts a comprehensive comparison of both markets, focusing on trading rather than regulation. Five key aspects are examined: platform, product, procedure, participant and strategy. The findings reveal numerous similarities between these two markets. Financial exchanges resemble online betting platforms, such as Betfair, and some financial products, including stocks and options, share speculative traits with sports betting. We examine whether well-established models and strategies from financial markets could be applied to the gambling industry, which lacks comparable frameworks. For example, statistical arbitrage from financial markets has been effectively applied to gambling markets, particularly in peer-to-peer betting exchanges, where bettors exploit odds discrepancies for risk-free profits using quantitative models. Therefore, exploring the strategies and approaches used in both markets could lead to new opportunities for innovation and optimization in trading and betting activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Haoyu Liu & Carl Donovan & Valentin Popov, 2024. "A Comparison between Financial and Gambling Markets," Papers 2409.13528, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2409.13528
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.13528
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jing Niu & Chao Ma & Chun-Ping Chang, 2023. "The arbitrage strategy in the crude oil futures market of shanghai international energy exchange," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1201-1223, April.
    2. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach & Mark Wilson, 2014. "Bettor Habits When Point Spreads and Money lines are Offered on the Same Game: The NFL," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(3), pages 57-74.
    4. Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
    5. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:617-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Krotov, Vlad, 2017. "The Internet of Things and new business opportunities," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 831-841.
    8. Davies, Mark & Pitt, Leyland & Shapiro, Daniel & Watson, Richard, 2005. "Betfair.com:: Five Technology Forces Revolutionize Worldwide Wagering," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-541, October.
    9. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management: Issues and Approaches for Firms," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 4(2), pages 129-146.
    10. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. "Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-1469, December.
    11. Stutzer, Michael, 1996. "A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1633-1652, December.
    12. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2003. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias, Bookmaker Margins and Insider Trading in a Variety of Betting Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 263-273, July.
    13. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
    14. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 654-669.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flepp, Raphael & Nüesch, Stephan & Franck, Egon, 2017. "The liquidity advantage of the quote-driven market: Evidence from the betting industry," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 306-317.
    2. Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Scognamillo, 2019. "On the Longshot Bias in Tennis Betting Markets: The Casco Normalization," Working Papers 3_236, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
    3. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
    4. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2011. "Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 502-518, October.
    6. Shai Levi & Xiao-Jun Zhang, 2015. "Do Temporary Increases in Information Asymmetry Affect the Cost of Equity?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 354-371, February.
    7. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
    8. Pascual, Roberto, 1999. "How does liquidity behave? A multidimensional analysis of NYSE stocks," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 6433, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    9. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
    10. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
    11. Babatunde Buraimo & David Peel & Rob Simmons, 2013. "Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-15, December.
    12. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
    13. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    14. Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "The Effects of Information Asymmetries on the Success of Stock Option Listings," Working Papers 484, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    15. Paul Brockman & Dennis Y. Chung, 1999. "Bid-Ask Spread Components In An Order-Driven Environment," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 227-246, June.
    16. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Modelling the Intraday Return Volatility Process In The Australian Equity Market: An Examination Of The Role Of Information Arrival In S&P/Asx 50 Stocks," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 150, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    17. Alvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal & Jamie Walton, 2018. "Foreign Exchange Markets with Last Look," Papers 1806.04460, arXiv.org.
    18. Xu, Yanyan & Huang, Dengshi & Ma, Feng & Qiao, Gaoxiu, 2019. "The heterogeneous impact of liquidity on volatility in Chinese stock index futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 73-85.
    19. Khoury, Nabil & Perrakis, Stylianos & Savor, Marko, 2011. "Competition, interlisting and market structure in options trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 104-117, January.
    20. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2409.13528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.